Roy Morgan Research
February 06, 2023

New Zealand: Labour support increased in January even before Jacinda Ardern announced her resignation

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9182

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for January 2023 shows support increased for the governing Labour Party in January, up 2.5% points to 30% - even before former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced her intention to resign on Thursday January 19.

New Prime Minister Chris Hipkins was sworn into the top job a week later and given over 80% of this months Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll was conducted before Hipkins became Prime Minister, there is not enough data yet available to draw any early conclusions on his leadership or whether the change in leadership has made a difference.

Nevertheless, the increase in support for Labour in January has increased support for the party to its highest since August 2022 and closed the gap significantly on the main opposition National.

Support for the governing Labour/ Greens coalition was on 42% in January 2023 (up 3.5% points on December 2022) with support for the Greens also increasing, up 1% point to 12%.

In contrast, the main Opposition National has lost support in January, down 3% points to 32% and support for Act NZ was down by 1% point to 13.5%. Combined support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition is therefore down 4% points to 45.5% - the lowest combined support since October 2022.

Maori Party and New Zealand First set to hold the ‘balance of power’ on current results

The results for January suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and this is due to increasing support for both the Maori Party and New Zealand First – now at 5% support for the first time since the last election.

Support for New Zealand First has increased by 1% point to 5%, its highest level of support for three years since February 2020. Support for the Maori Party has also increased, up 0.5% points to 4.5%.

A further 3% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, down 1% point from a month ago including 1.5% (down 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and 0.5% (down 0.5% point) who support the New Conservative Party.

57 seats for National/ Act NZ and 52 seats for Labour/ Greens leave both short of a majority

If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 57 seats in the new Parliament compared to 52 seats for Labour/Greens – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.

The projected results show both New Zealand First, with 6 seats, and the Maori Party, with 5 seats, would have the balance of power in the new Parliament. Either New Zealand First or the Maori Party could provide National and Act NZ with a working majority or if both parties supported Labour and the Greens we would have a re-elected Hipkins-led Government continuing for a third term.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 948 electors during January. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4%, up 1% point, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumped 16pts to 91 in January

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped by 16pts to 91 in January – its highest level since October 2022 (92). This was the biggest monthly increase in the Government Confidence Rating since a leap of 28 points in April 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In January 2023 a clear plurality of 49% (down 8% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to two-fifths, 40% (up 8% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

Men heavily favour a National/Act NZ coalition while women are split by age

48.5% of men support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition – a sizeable gap of 13.5% points over the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 35%.

There was a small margin of under 5% points for men aged 18-49 with 41.5% supporting National/Act NZ compared to 39% supporting Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was a much larger gap with a majority of 56.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to only 30.5% for Labour/ Greens.

Women are more evenly split with a slight advantage to the current governing Labour/Greens coalition (48.5%) ahead of a potential National/ Act NZ coalition (42%) – a margin of 6.5% points in favour of the incumbent government.

In fact, the support of women between the two sides is split by age. A clear majority of women aged 18-49 support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 53.5% compared to 38% who support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition. In contrast, women aged 50+ narrowly favour the opposition with 46.5% in support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition compared to 43% who support the governing Labour/Greens coalition.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Nearly one-in-five women aged 18-49 (18.5%) and around one-in-seven men aged 18-49 (14.5%) support the Greens compared to only 4.5% of women aged 50+ and 6.5% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 4.5% of men including 6% support from men aged 18-49 but only 3% support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of women including 3.5% of women aged 18-49 and 4.5% of women aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

  Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 30 35 27.5 39.5 24.5 24.5 24
Greens 12 13.5 18.5 4.5 10.5 14.5 6.5
Labour/ Greens 42 48.5 53.5 43 35 39 30.5
               
National 32 33 28.5 36 30.5 23.5 38
Act NZ 13.5 9 12 11 18 18 18.5
National/ Act NZ 45.5 42 38 46.5 48.5 41.5 56.5
               
Maori Party 4.5 4 3.5 4.5 4.5 6 3
NZ First 5 3.5 3 3.5 7 7.5 6.5
Others 3 2 2 2.5 5 6 3.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 40 42 47.5 36 37.5 48 26
Wrong Direction 49 44.5 39 50.5 54 45.5 63.5
Government Confidence Rating 91 97.5 108.5 85.5 83.5 102.5 62.5
Can’t say 11 13.5 13.5 13.5 8.5 6.5 10.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 62.5 in January

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating recovered in January with strong increases – especially for younger women and men aged 18-49.

Among women overall now a plurality of 44.5% (down 11% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 42% (up 8% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 97.5 (up 19pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 soared by 27pts to 108.5 while it increased by 10.5pts to 85.5 for women aged 50+.

A slim majority of men, 54% (down 5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while over a third of men, 37.5% (up 7.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 83.5 (up 12.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 leapt by 31.5pts to 102.5 while for older men aged 50+ it was virtually unchanged at only 62.5.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s decision to resign in mid-January has thrown a large degree of uncertainty into the contest at this year’s New Zealand Election – with either side of politics capable of emerging victorious:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows a narrow lead to the potential governing coalition of National/ Act NZ on 45.5% ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens on 42% – but neither side of politics is set for a majority of seats based on the results for January.

“Jacinda Ardern’s resignation has upended the race to win this year’s New Zealand Election set to be held in October. New Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has had a high public profile over recent years as the Minister for Health and the COVID-19 response from 2020-2022 but is untested in a leadership position.

“Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon has been in the box seat to win this year’s election in recent months but the results for January show the contest is set to go down to the wire with neither side of politics in a position to claim a majority of seats on current sentiment.

“Support for both New Zealand First, up 1% point to 5%, and the Maori Party, up 0.5% points to 4.5% increased in January and if the results were January were repeated at the election the two parties would control 11 seats in the new Parliament – and share the balance of power.

“As has been the case in three previous elections it could well be New Zealand First Party Leader Winston Peters who decides who will form Government. In 1996 New Zealand First backed Jim Bolger and National to continue in Government whereas in 2005 and 2017 Peters’ decided to back Labour Party leaders Helen Clark (2005) and Jacinda Ardern (2017).

“The results for January show New Zealand First on course to win six seats at the New Zealand Election due in October. This result would give a potential National/ Act NZ/ NZ First coalition a majority of 63 seats in the new Parliament and see Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon elected as New Zealand’s 42nd Prime Minister.

“The upheaval surrounding Ardern’s resignation and the ’installation’ of Hipkins as the new Prime Minister means the results for January should be taken with a ‘grain of salt’.

“It is far too early to draw any conclusions on whether Hipkins is up to the role of leading New Zealand and the results of next month’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for February will give the first clear picture of whether Hipkins has managed to cut through and move the Government past its former leader.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

  Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National & Act NZ)
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* 57.87 33.17
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL    
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020
2021    
January 2021 58.5 34
February 2021 58.5 36.5
March 2021 57.5 34
April 2021 55 38.5
May 2021 56 37.5
June 2021 51 41
July 2021 49.5 42
August 2021 51.5 38
September 2021 55 39
October 2021 50 42
November 2021 46.5 44
December 2021 44 50
2022    
January 2022 43.5 48.5
February 2022 43 49.5
March 2022 42.5 47
April 2022 44 47.5
May 2022 43 50
June 2022 43.5 48.5
July 2022 44.5 46
August 2022 44 46
September 2022 42 48.5
October 2022 44.5 44.5
November 2022 37.5 50
December 2022 38.5 49.5
2023    
January 2023 42 45.5

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

PARTY VOTE Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First TOP** Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
                 
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a 13.35 n/a 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a 4.26 n/a 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a 10.38 n/a 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 5.72 n/a 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 4.07 n/a 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 6.59 n/a 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 8.66 n/a 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 7.20 2.44 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 2.60 1.51 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL                
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021                
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 2 1.5 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1.5 1 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2.5 2 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 1 0.5 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 2 1.5 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 1.5 2 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 2 3 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2.5 2 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 2.5 1 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 2.5 1.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 2 1 2
2022                
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 2 1 2.5
March 2022 32 10.5 38 9 2 4 1.5 3
April 2022 33.5 10.5 37.5 10 1.5 2.5 2 2.5
May 2022 31.5 11.5 40 10 1 3 1 2
June 2022 33.5 10 39 9.5 1.5 1.5 2 3
July 2022 34 10.5 35 11 4 1.5 2.5 1.5
August 2022 35 9 35.5 10.5 5 1.5 1 2.5
September 2022 29.5 12.5 36 12.5 3.5 1 2.5 2.5
October 2022 29 15.5 32 12.5 3 3.5 3 1.5
November 2022 25.5 12 39 11 4 3.5 2.5 2.5
December 2022 27.5 11 35 14.5 4 4 2.5 1.5
2023                
January 2023 30 12 32 13.5 4.5 5 1.5 1.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

SEAT COUNT Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % %
               
October 12, 1996* 37 0 44 8 0 17 14*
November 27, 1999 49 7 39 9 0 5 11*
July 27, 2002 52 9 27 9 0 13 10*
September 17, 2005 50 6 48 2 4 7 4*
November 8, 2008 43 9 58 5 5 0 2*
November 26, 2011 34 14 59 1 3 8 2*
September 20, 2014 32 14 60 1 2 11 1*
September 23, 2017 46 8 56 1 0 9 0
October 17, 2020 65 10 33 10 2 0 0
ROY MORGAN

SEAT PREDICTOR

             
2021              
March 2021 59 16 30 14 1 0 0
April 2021 52 17 37 11 3 0 0
May 2021 57 14 36 11 2 0 0
June 2021 49 16 37 15 3 0 0
July 2021 50 13 37 17 3 0 0
August 2021 51 16 33 17 4 0 0
September 2021 57 12 29 20 2 0 0
October 2021 51 13 33 20 3 0 0
November 2021 46 14 34 22 4 0 0
December 2021 45 11 40 23 1 0 0
2022              
January 2022 42 13 45 17 3 0 0
February 2022 41 14 48 15 2 0 0
March 2022 42 14 50 12 2 0 0
April 2022 43 13 49 13 2 0 0
May 2022 40 15 51 13 1 0 0
June 2022 43 13 50 12 2 0 0
July 2022 43 13 45 14 5 0 0
August 2022 44 12 45 13 6 0 0
September 2022 38 16 46 16 4 0 0
October 2022 38 20 42 16 4 0 0
November 2022 34 16 51 14 5 0 0
December 2022 36 14 46 19 5 0 0
2023              
January 2023 37 15 40 17 5 6 0

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)
  Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 66.5 68 58 59 60.5 77 76 72 71.5 71 70.5 68.5 69.5 71.5
Wrong direction 20 18 29.5 27 25.5 14 17.5 18.5 19 19 19.5 21 20 18
Roy Morgan GCR# 146.5 150 128.5 132 135 163 158.5 153.5 152.5 152 151 147.5 149.5 153.5
Can’t say 13.5 14 12.5 14 14 9 6.5 9.5 9.5 10 10 10.5 10.5 10.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021
Jun
2021
Jul
2021
Aug
2021
Sep
2021
Oct
2021
Nov 2021 Dec

2021

Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Mar
2022
Apr
2022
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 71.5 69.5 61.5 62.5 62.5 57 55.5 52.5 57 48 46 42.5 48.5 42.5 39 43
Wrong direction 18.5 20 26 26.5 28.5 33 34.5 37.5 32 38.5 44.5 44.5 42 47.5 51.5 49.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 153 149.5 135.5 136 134 124 121 115 125 109.5 101.5 98 106.5 95 87.5 93.5
Can’t say 10 10.5 12.5 11 9 10 10 10 11 13.5 9.5 13 9.5 10 9.5 7.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  May
2022
Jun
2022
Jul
2022
Aug
2022
Sep
2022
Oct
2022
Nov
2022
Dec
2022
Jan
2023
Feb
2023
Mar 2023 Apr

2023

May
2023
Jun
2023
Jul
2023
Aug
2023
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 40 39 40.5 37.5 37.5 42 35 32 40              
Wrong direction 50 51.5 51 53 51.5 50 55 57 49              
Roy Morgan GCR# 90 87.5 89.5 84.5 86 92 80 75 91              
Can’t say 10 9.5 8.5 9.5 11 8 10 11 11              
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:

Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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