New Zealand: Labour support at only 27.5% in December 2022 – down 22.5% points since the 2020 New Zealand Election before Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for December 2022 shows support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party had collapsed by a massive 22.5% points to 27.5% in just over two years since the 2020 New Zealand Election in October 2020.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced her impending resignation from the top job last week and stated the reason for resigning was that ‘I just don’t have enough in the tank for another four years’ with New Zealand facing a general election later this year in October.
Support for current governing Labour/ Greens coalition was on 38.5% in December 2022, down 19.4% points since the 2020 New Zealand Election. In contrast support for the Greens has increased slightly since the last election up by 3.1% points to 11%.
The major opposition parties have been large beneficiaries from the slide in support for Labour with a potential National/ Act NZ coalition up 16.3% points to 49.5% since the 2020 New Zealand Election. Support for the main opposition National is up 9.4% points to 35% and support for Act NZ has increased by 6.9% points to 14.5%.
National/ Act NZ coalition on track for a clear majority of 65 seats at the election
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 65 seats in the new Parliament compared to 50 seats for Labour/Greens and a further five seats for the Maori Party.
Support for minor parties is up 3.1% points to 12% since the 2020 New Zealand Election
Support for the Maori Party is up 2.8% points to 4% since the last New Zealand Election although the large lead for National/Act NZ suggests the party would have little influence over who would form government after this year’s election.
In addition, 8% of electors support minor parties outside Parliament, an increase of 0.3% points since the 2020 New Zealand Election. Support for New Zealand First is on 4%, The Opportunities Party is on 2.5% and support for the New Conservative Party is on 1%.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 947 electors during December. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3%, down 2% points, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 5pts a record low of 75 in December
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell by a further 5pts in December to a record low of 75. The indicator is now down a massive 78pts from two years ago in January 2021 (153) just after the re-election of the Ardern Government.
In December 2022 a record high of 57% (up 2% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to a record low of under a third, 32% (down 3% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 6.9pts to 73.8 and is well below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 87.7 on January 10-16, 2023.
Men heavily favour a National/Act NZ coalition while women are almost evenly split
A clear majority of men, 55.5%, support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition – a gap of 24.5% points over the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 31%.
There was a margin of under 10% points for men aged 18-49 with 47% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 37.5% supporting Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was a larger gap with a majority of 64.5% supporting National/ Act NZ more than double the support of 24.5% for Labour/ Greens.
Women are more evenly split with a slight advantage to the current governing Labour/Greens coalition (45%) just ahead of a potential National/ Act NZ coalition (43.5%) – a margin of 1.5% points in favour of the opposition.
For women aged 18-49 support for the governing Labour/ Greens coalition is on 46% compared to 40.5% who support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition. In contrast, women aged 50+ narrowly favour the opposition with 47% in support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition compared to 44% who support the governing Labour/Greens coalition.
Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Nearly one-in-five women aged 18-49 (18.5%) and around one-in-eight men aged 18-49 (13%) support the Greens compared to only 4.5% of women aged 50+ and 5.5% of men aged 50+.
The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of men including 6% support from men aged 18-49 but only 2% support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4.52% of women including 6.5% of women aged 18-49 and 2.5% of women aged 50+.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| Total | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Labour | 27.5 | 33 | 27.5 | 39.5 | 21.5 | 24.5 | 19 |
| Greens | 11 | 12 | 18.5 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 13 | 5.5 |
| Labour/ Greens | 38.5 | 45 | 46 | 44 | 31 | 37.5 | 24.5 |
| National | 35 | 32 | 28.5 | 36 | 37.5 | 29 | 46.5 |
| Act NZ | 14.5 | 11.5 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| National/ Act NZ | 49.5 | 43.5 | 40.5 | 47 | 55.5 | 47 | 64.5 |
| Maori Party | 4 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Others | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | |||||||
| Right Direction | 32 | 34 | 36 | 32 | 30 | 34.5 | 25 |
| Wrong Direction | 57 | 55.5 | 54.5 | 57 | 59 | 54.5 | 63.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 75 | 78.5 | 81.5 | 75 | 71 | 80 | 61.5 |
| Can’t say | 11 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 61.5 in December
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunged to another record low in December, with record lows for both women and men.
Among women overall now a majority of 55.5% (up 1% point) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 34% (down 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 78.5 (down 1.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ dropped by 2pts to 75, but for women aged 18-49 was up 4.5pts to 81.5.
A growing majority of men, 59% (up 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while under a third of men, 30% (down 5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 71 (down 9pts). Younger men aged 18-49 have a Government Confidence Rating of 71 (down 9pts) while for older men aged 50+ it was down 10pts to only 61.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s decision to resign has come as a shock to many but the trends in voting intention over the past year showed Ardern was facing an uphill battle to win another term in office:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for the Labour party languishing below 30% for the fourth straight month – and down by over 20% points since the 2020 New Zealand Election just over two years ago.
“The combined support for the governing Labour/ Greens coalition is at 38.5% (Labour on 27.5% and the Greens on 11%) – down 19.4% points on the election which brought the two parties into power in October 2020 (57.9%). The opposition National/Act NZ coalition is now on 49.5% support (National on 35% and Act NZ on 14.5%), up a large 16.3% points since the election.
“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern led the Labour Party to a ‘herstoric’ victory at the 2020 New Zealand Election with Labour gaining the support of a majority of the electorate (50.01%). Labour were the first party to gain an outright majority since the ‘Mixed Member Proportional’ (MMP) voting system was introduced in1996.
“Since that record high level of support for Labour during the first year of the pandemic there has been a consistent decline – especially since September 2021. The decline accelerated as New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland entered lockdown in October 2021 and with restrictions continuing for several months support for Labour continued to decline.
“The ongoing restrictions were in contrast to comparable countries around the world which had largely relaxed restrictions earlier in 2021. Even Australia fully re-opened its international borders in late February 2022 whereas New Zealand didn’t fully re-open its international borders until August 2022 over five months later.
“In August 2022 support for Labour was down to 35%, down 10.5% points since September 2021, and now behind National on 35.5%. National had been re-invigorated after replacing former leader Judith Collins with Christopher Luxon late in 2021.
“During 2022 as New Zealand moved away from pandemic restrictions there were new issues for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Labour-led government as rising inflation and rapidly rising interest rates introduced a new level of economic uncertainty to the electorate.
“The latest inflation figures from Statistics New Zealand show inflation at a near 30-year high of 7.2% in the year to September 2022 and official interest rates have increased from a record low of 0.25% in October 2021 up by 4% points to 4.25% today.
“These economic indicators have many predicting a tough year for New Zealand. The median house price is already estimated to have fallen around 15% from its peak in November 2021 according to ANZ economists who are now forecasting a total decline of over 20%.
“The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating for December 2022 is also at a record low of only 73.8 – lower than at any time during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and lower than at any time during the Global Financial Crisis and recession of 2008-09.
“All the signs are pointing squarely against the re-election of the Labour Party at this year’s election due in October – although with new Prime Minister Chris Hipkins there is some hope that a new face will bolster the party’s chances.
“One factor that is likely to count against that hope is that Hipkins has had a prominent role over the last three years as the Minister for Health and the Minister for the COVID-19 response.
“All the decisions that the Labour Government took in relation to COVID-19 that turned out to be unpopular – particularly once other countries started to open up – are equally tied to outgoing Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her soon-to-be replacement Chris Hipkins.
“There are just over eight months to go until New Zealanders face this year’s election and at the moment Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon is in the box seat to win that election, most likely in coalition with the centre-right libertarians of Act NZ.”
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – December 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – December 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – December 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.
Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties
| Labour Party-led Government
(Labour, Greens) |
Parliamentary Opposition Parties (National & Act NZ) |
|
| NZ Election, October 17, 2020* | 57.87 | 33.17 |
| ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL | ||
| Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament, signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020 |
||
| 2021 | ||
| January 2021 | 58.5 | 34 |
| February 2021 | 58.5 | 36.5 |
| March 2021 | 57.5 | 34 |
| April 2021 | 55 | 38.5 |
| May 2021 | 56 | 37.5 |
| June 2021 | 51 | 41 |
| July 2021 | 49.5 | 42 |
| August 2021 | 51.5 | 38 |
| September 2021 | 55 | 39 |
| October 2021 | 50 | 42 |
| November 2021 | 46.5 | 44 |
| December 2021 | 44 | 50 |
| 2022 | ||
| January 2022 | 43.5 | 48.5 |
| February 2022 | 43 | 49.5 |
| March 2022 | 42.5 | 47 |
| April 2022 | 44 | 47.5 |
| May 2022 | 43 | 50 |
| June 2022 | 43.5 | 48.5 |
| July 2022 | 44.5 | 46 |
| August 2022 | 44 | 46 |
| September 2022 | 42 | 48.5 |
| October 2022 | 44.5 | 44.5 |
| November 2022 | 37.5 | 50 |
| December 2022 | 38.5 | 49.5 |
*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).
Voting Intention Summary
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:
| PARTY VOTE | Labour | Green Party* | National | ACT NZ | Maori Party** | TOP** | NZ First | Other |
| ELECTIONS | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| October 12, 1996* | 28.19 | 10.10 | 33.87 | 6.10 | n/a | n/a | 13.35 | 8.39 |
| November 27, 1999 | 38.74 | 5.16 | 30.50 | 7.04 | n/a | n/a | 4.26 | 14.30 |
| July 27, 2002 | 41.26 | 7.00 | 20.93 | 7.14 | n/a | n/a | 10.38 | 13.29 |
| September 17, 2005 | 41.10 | 5.30 | 39.10 | 1.51 | 2.12 | n/a | 5.72 | 5.15 |
| November 8, 2008 | 33.99 | 6.72 | 44.93 | 3.65 | 2.39 | n/a | 4.07 | 4.25 |
| November 26, 2011 | 27.48 | 11.06 | 47.31 | 1.07 | 1.43 | n/a | 6.59 | 5.06 |
| September 20, 2014 | 25.13 | 10.70 | 47.04 | 0.69 | 1.32 | n/a | 8.66 | 6.46 |
| September 23, 2017 | 36.89 | 6.27 | 44.45 | 0.50 | 1.18 | 2.44 | 7.20 | 1.07 |
| October 17, 2020 | 50.01 | 7.86 | 25.58 | 7.59 | 1.17 | 1.51 | 2.60 | 3.70 |
| ROY MORGAN POLL | ||||||||
| December 2020 | 44 | 10.5 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 2021 | ||||||||
| January 2021 | 47 | 11.5 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 |
| February 2021 | 45 | 13.5 | 29 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| March 2021 | 45.5 | 12 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 |
| April 2021 | 41.5 | 13.5 | 29.5 | 9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 2.5 |
| May 2021 | 45 | 11 | 28.5 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 |
| June 2021 | 38.5 | 12.5 | 29.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| July 2021 | 39.5 | 10 | 29 | 13 | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| August 2021 | 39.5 | 12 | 25 | 13 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| September 2021 | 45.5 | 9.5 | 23 | 16 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
| October 2021 | 39.5 | 10.5 | 26 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| November 2021 | 36 | 10.5 | 26.5 | 17.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| December 2021 | 35.5 | 8.5 | 31.5 | 18.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2022 | ||||||||
| January 2022 | 33 | 10.5 | 35 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| February 2022 | 32 | 11 | 38 | 11.5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 |
| March 2022 | 32 | 10.5 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 1.5 | 4 | 3 |
| April 2022 | 33.5 | 10.5 | 37.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| May 2022 | 31.5 | 11.5 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| June 2022 | 33.5 | 10 | 39 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 |
| July 2022 | 34 | 10.5 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| August 2022 | 35 | 9 | 35.5 | 10.5 | 5 | 1 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| September 2022 | 29.5 | 12.5 | 36 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 2.5 |
| October 2022 | 29 | 15.5 | 32 | 12.5 | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| November 2022 | 25.5 | 12 | 39 | 11 | 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| December 2022 | 27.5 | 11 | 35 | 14.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 |
*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.
Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor
The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:
| SEAT COUNT | Labour | Green Party* | National | ACT NZ | Maori Party** | NZ First | Other |
| ELECTIONS | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| October 12, 1996* | 37 | 0 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 17 | 14* |
| November 27, 1999 | 49 | 7 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 11* |
| July 27, 2002 | 52 | 9 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 10* |
| September 17, 2005 | 50 | 6 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4* |
| November 8, 2008 | 43 | 9 | 58 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2* |
| November 26, 2011 | 34 | 14 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2* |
| September 20, 2014 | 32 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1* |
| September 23, 2017 | 46 | 8 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| October 17, 2020 | 65 | 10 | 33 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| ROY MORGAN
SEAT PREDICTOR |
|||||||
| 2021 | |||||||
| January 2021 | 60 | 15 | 32 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| February 2021 | 56 | 17 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| March 2021 | 59 | 16 | 30 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2021 | 52 | 17 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 2021 | 57 | 14 | 36 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| June 2021 | 49 | 16 | 37 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| July 2021 | 50 | 13 | 37 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| August 2021 | 51 | 16 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| September 2021 | 57 | 12 | 29 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| October 2021 | 51 | 13 | 33 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| November 2021 | 46 | 14 | 34 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| December 2021 | 45 | 11 | 40 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | |||||||
| January 2022 | 42 | 13 | 45 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| February 2022 | 41 | 14 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| March 2022 | 42 | 14 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2022 | 43 | 13 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| May 2022 | 40 | 15 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| June 2022 | 43 | 13 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| July 2022 | 43 | 13 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| August 2022 | 44 | 12 | 45 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| September 2022 | 38 | 16 | 46 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| October 2022 | 38 | 20 | 42 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| November 2022 | 34 | 16 | 51 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| December 2022 | 36 | 14 | 46 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).
Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.
Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).
Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).
Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.) | ||||||||||||||
| Nov 2017 |
Dec 2017 |
Jan 2020 |
Feb 2020 |
Mar 2020 |
Apr 2020 |
May 2020 |
Jun 2020 |
Jul 2020 |
Aug 2020 |
Sep 2020 |
Oct 2020 |
Nov 2020 |
Dec 2020 |
|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Right direction | 66.5 | 68 | 58 | 59 | 60.5 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 71.5 | 71 | 70.5 | 68.5 | 69.5 | 71.5 |
| Wrong direction | 20 | 18 | 29.5 | 27 | 25.5 | 14 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 19 | 19 | 19.5 | 21 | 20 | 18 |
| Roy Morgan GCR# | 146.5 | 150 | 128.5 | 132 | 135 | 163 | 158.5 | 153.5 | 152.5 | 152 | 151 | 147.5 | 149.5 | 153.5 |
| Can’t say | 13.5 | 14 | 12.5 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10 | 10 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jan 2021 |
Feb 2021 |
Mar 2021 |
Apr 2021 |
May 2021 |
Jun 2021 |
Jul 2021 |
Aug 2021 |
Sep 2021 |
Oct 2021 |
Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | Jan 2022 |
Feb 2022 |
Mar 2022 |
Apr 2022 |
|||||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |||||
| Right direction | 71.5 | 69.5 | 61.5 | 62.5 | 62.5 | 57 | 55.5 | 52.5 | 57 | 48 | 46 | 42.5 | 48.5 | 42.5 | 39 | 43 | ||||
| Wrong direction | 18.5 | 20 | 26 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 33 | 34.5 | 37.5 | 32 | 38.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 42 | 47.5 | 51.5 | 49.5 | ||||
| Roy Morgan GCR# | 153 | 149.5 | 135.5 | 136 | 134 | 124 | 121 | 115 | 125 | 109.5 | 101.5 | 98 | 106.5 | 95 | 87.5 | 93.5 | ||||
| Can’t say | 10 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 13 | 9.5 | 10 | 9.5 | 7.5 | ||||
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||
| NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| May 2022 |
Jun 2022 |
Jul 2022 |
Aug 2022 |
Sep 2022 |
Oct 2022 |
Nov 2022 |
Dec 2022 |
Jan 2023 |
Feb 2023 |
Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | May 2023 |
Jun 2023 |
Jul 2023 |
Aug 2023 |
|||||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |||||
| Right direction | 40 | 39 | 40.5 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 42 | 35 | 32 | ||||||||||||
| Wrong direction | 50 | 51.5 | 51 | 53 | 51.5 | 50 | 55 | 57 | ||||||||||||
| Roy Morgan GCR# | 90 | 87.5 | 89.5 | 84.5 | 86 | 92 | 80 | 75 | ||||||||||||
| Can’t say | 10 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 11 | ||||||||||||
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||
#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
