Roy Morgan Research
December 06, 2022

Majority of New Zealanders (55%) believe the country is going in the ‘wrong direction’; National support surges in November as Labour support drops to lowest since June 2017

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9122

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for November shows support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition surging in November, up 5.5% points in a month to 50%, and now well ahead of the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 37.5% (down 7% points).

Support for the minor parties increased by 1.5% points to 12.5%.

If these results were repeated at next year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 65 seats in the new Parliament compared to 49 seats for Labour/Greens and a further five seats for the Maori Party.

In November support for National rebounded strongly, up 7% points to 39% - back to where support for the party was in June 2022. Support for potential coalition partners Act NZ was down slightly by 1.5% points to 11%.

The news was not good for the current governing coalition with support for Labour dropping 3.5% points to 25.5%. This is the lowest level of support for Labour for over five years since June 2017 – before Jacinda Ardern became the Labour Party leader a month later. Support for the Greens also fell in November, down 3.5% points to 12%.

Support for the Maori Party increased 1% points to 4% although if the above result were repeated at next year’s election the party would have little influence over who would form government.

In addition, 8.5% of electors (up 0.5% points) support minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First unchanged at 3.5%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 2.5% and support for the New Conservative Party was unchanged at 0.5% in November.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 926 electors during November. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, down 2% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunges 12pts to record low of 80 in November

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged by 12pts in November to 80. The indicator is now down a massive 45pts from just over a year ago in September 2021.

In November just over a third, 35% (down 7% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to a record high 55% (up 5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

For the first time both women and men of all ages favour the National/Act NZ coalition

For the first time women favour a potential National/ Act NZ coalition (44.5%) over the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition (42.5%) – a margin of 2% points in favour of the opposition.

Support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition is stronger amongst older women aged 50+ at 46.5% compared to 43% who support Labour/ Greens. For women aged 18-49 the result is much closer with a potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 42.5% just in front of the governing Labour/ Greens on 42%.

The potential National/ Act NZ coalition enjoys far greater support amongst men at 55% - over 20% points ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens on 32.5%.

There was a margin of under 10% points for men aged 18-49 with 44.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 35% supporting Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was a larger gap with a large majority of 66% supporting National/ Act NZ more than double the support of 29.5% for Labour/ Greens.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Exactly one-in-five women aged 18-49 (20%) and around one-in-seven men aged 18-49 (14.5%) support the Greens compared to only 7.5% of women aged 50+ and 6% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of only 4.5% of men including 8.5% support from men aged 18-49 and negligible support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of women including 6% of women aged 18-49 and 2% of women aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

  Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 25.5 29 22 35.5 22 20.5 23.5
Greens 12 13.5 20 7.5 10.5 14.5 6
Labour/ Greens 37.5 42.5 42 43 32.5 35 29.5
               
National 39 36.5 35.5 37.5 41.5 36 47.5
Act NZ 11 8 7 9 13.5 8.5 18.5
Maori Party 4 4 6 2 4.5 8.5
National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party 54 48.5 48.5 48.5 59.5 53 66
               
Others 8.5 9 9.5 8.5 8 12 4.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 35 34.5 32.5 36.5 35 37.5 32.5
Wrong Direction 55 54.5 55.5 54 55 50 61
Government Confidence Rating 80 80 77 82.5 80 87.5 71.5
Can’t say 10 11 12 9.5 10 12.5 6.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 71.5 in November

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunged to a record low in November with falls across all four key gender and age groups.

Among women overall now a majority of 54.5% (up 6% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 34.5% (down 7.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 80 (down 13.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped by 13.5pts to 77 and for women aged 50+ was down by 15pts to 82.5.

A growing majority of men, 55% (up 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only around a third of men, 35% (down 7% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 80 (down 11pts). Younger men aged 18-49 have a Government Confidence Rating of 87 (down 13pts) while for older men aged 50+ it was down 8.5pts to only 71.5.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says National has regained support lost in the last few months as the two major parties face a crucial by-election this week in Hamilton West – often regarded as a reliable ‘bellwether seat’ to read the tone of the electorate:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National increasing 7% points to 39% in November – the highest level of support for the party since June 2022. Support for potential coalition partners Act NZ is at 11% (down 1.5% points).

“The combined support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition is up 5% points to 50% – the highest the combined support has been since May 2022. This gives the two right-leaning parties a significant edge over the governing Labour/ Greens now on 37.5%, down 7% points, and the lowest combined support for the two parties for over five years.

“The big difference between now and mid-2022 is that support for Labour has collapsed. In June 2022, the last time National were on 39% support, Labour were within ‘striking distance’ with 33.5% support. Since then, support for Labour has dropped to only 25.5% in November – the lowest level of support for the Labour Party since June 2017. This was before current Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ascended to the leadership of the Labour party in August 2017.

“The poor performance for Labour in November has been reflected in the declining levels of Consumer Confidence and Government Confidence – both down significantly during the last month. Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Rating has dropped 12pts to a record low of only 80 while the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is down 4.7pts to only 80.7 – its lowest level since mid-2022.

“Over the last week Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has hosted Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin – the first time a sitting Finnish Prime Minister has ever visited New Zealand.

“Prime Ministers Ardern and Marin discussed the volatile global situation and Ardern will be hoping the visit will provide a boost to the flagging fortunes of her party. Finland was earlier this year named the ‘world’s happiest country’ for the fifth year in a row – so clearly Prime Minister Marin is doing something right. Finland also faces new Parliamentary elections next year.

“Looking forward, the first test for the governing Labour Party is this week in the electorate of Hamilton West which faces a by-election due to the resignation of former Labour Party MP Gaurav Sharma. Although held by the Labour Party the seat is regarded as a reliable ‘bellwether’ of the electorate’s mood as it is usually won by the party of Government.

“A victory for the Christopher Luxon-led National will be an early Christmas present for Luxon who has faced questions over his leadership abilities in recent months as the country gets set to enter an election year.

“If the Labour Party can retain the seat, despite the expected swing against the incumbent Government, that will provide a strong endorsement for Prime Minister Ardern as she attempts to win a third term of government next year.

“The last three New Zealand Governments (Bolger Government: 1990, 1993 & 1996; Clarke Government: 1999, 2002 & 2005 and Key Government: 2008, 2011 & 2014) have all won three terms in office before being defeated.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

  Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* 57.87 34.33
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL    
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020
2021    
January 2021 58.5 36
February 2021 58.5 37.5
March 2021 57.5 35
April 2021 55 41
May 2021 56 39
June 2021 51 43.5
July 2021 49.5 44.5
August 2021 51.5 40.5
September 2021 55 41
October 2021 50 44
November 2021 46.5 47
December 2021 44 51
2022    
January 2022 43.5 51
February 2022 43 51.5
March 2022 42.5 49
April 2022 44 49
May 2022 43 51
June 2022 43.5 50
July 2022 44.5 50
August 2022 44 51
September 2022 42 52
October 2022 44.5 47.5
November 2022 37.5 54

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

PARTY VOTE Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** TOP** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
                 
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a n/a 13.35 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a n/a 4.26 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a n/a 10.38 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 n/a 5.72 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 n/a 4.07 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 n/a 6.59 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 n/a 8.66 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 2.44 7.20 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 1.51 2.60 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL                
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021                
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 1.5 2 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1 1.5 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2 2.5 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 0.5 1 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 1.5 2 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 2 1.5 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 3 2 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2 2.5 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 1 2.5 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 1.5 2.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 1 2 2
2022                
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 1 2 2.5
March 2022 32 10.5 38 9 2 1.5 4 3
April 2022 33.5 10.5 37.5 10 1.5 2 2.5 2.5
May 2022 31.5 11.5 40 10 1 1 3 2
June 2022 33.5 10 39 9.5 1.5 2 1.5 3
July 2022 34 10.5 35 11 4 2.5 1.5 1.5
August 2022 35 9 35.5 10.5 5 1 1.5 2.5
September 2022 29.5 12.5 36 12.5 3.5 2.5 1 2.5
October 2022 29 15.5 32 12.5 3 3 3.5 1.5
November 2022 25.5 12 39 11 4 2.5 3.5 2.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

SEAT COUNT Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % %
               
October 12, 1996* 37 0 44 8 0 17 14*
November 27, 1999 49 7 39 9 0 5 11*
July 27, 2002 52 9 27 9 0 13 10*
September 17, 2005 50 6 48 2 4 7 4*
November 8, 2008 43 9 58 5 5 0 2*
November 26, 2011 34 14 59 1 3 8 2*
September 20, 2014 32 14 60 1 2 11 1*
September 23, 2017 46 8 56 1 0 9 0
October 17, 2020 65 10 33 10 2 0 0
ROY MORGAN

SEAT PREDICTOR

             
2021              
January 2021 60 15 32 11 2 0 0
February 2021 56 17 36 10 1 0 0
March 2021 59 16 30 14 1 0 0
April 2021 52 17 37 11 3 0 0
May 2021 57 14 36 11 2 0 0
June 2021 49 16 37 15 3 0 0
July 2021 50 13 37 17 3 0 0
August 2021 51 16 33 17 4 0 0
September 2021 57 12 29 20 2 0 0
October 2021 51 13 33 20 3 0 0
November 2021 46 14 34 22 4 0 0
December 2021 45 11 40 23 1 0 0
2022              
January 2022 42 13 45 17 3 0 0
February 2022 41 14 48 15 2 0 0
March 2022 42 14 50 12 2 0 0
April 2022 43 13 49 13 2 0 0
May 2022 40 15 51 13 1 0 0
June 2022 43 13 50 12 2 0 0
July 2022 43 13 45 14 5 0 0
August 2022 44 12 45 13 6 0 0
September 2022 38 16 46 16 4 0 0
October 2022 38 20 42 16 4 0 0
November 2022 34 16 51 14 5 0 0

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)
  Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 66.5 68 58 59 60.5 77 76 72 71.5 71 70.5 68.5 69.5 71.5
Wrong direction 20 18 29.5 27 25.5 14 17.5 18.5 19 19 19.5 21 20 18
Roy Morgan GCR# 146.5 150 128.5 132 135 163 158.5 153.5 152.5 152 151 147.5 149.5 153.5
Can’t say 13.5 14 12.5 14 14 9 6.5 9.5 9.5 10 10 10.5 10.5 10.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021
Jun
2021
Jul
2021
Aug
2021
Sep
2021
Oct
2021
Nov 2021 Dec

2021

Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Mar
2022
Apr
2022
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 71.5 69.5 61.5 62.5 62.5 57 55.5 52.5 57 48 46 42.5 48.5 42.5 39 43
Wrong direction 18.5 20 26 26.5 28.5 33 34.5 37.5 32 38.5 44.5 44.5 42 47.5 51.5 49.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 153 149.5 135.5 136 134 124 121 115 125 109.5 101.5 98 106.5 95 87.5 93.5
Can’t say 10 10.5 12.5 11 9 10 10 10 11 13.5 9.5 13 9.5 10 9.5 7.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  May
2022
Jun
2022
Jul
2022
Aug
2022
Sep
2022
Oct
2022
Nov
2022
Dec
2022
Jan
2023
Feb
2023
Mar 2023 Apr

2023

May
2023
Jun
2023
Jul
2023
Aug
2023
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 40 39 40.5 37.5 37.5 42 35                  
Wrong direction 50 51.5 51 53 51.5 50 55                  
Roy Morgan GCR# 90 87.5 89.5 84.5 86 92 80                  
Can’t say 10 9.5 8.5 9.5 11 8 10                  
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:

Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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