Majority of New Zealanders (55%) believe the country is going in the ‘wrong direction’; National support surges in November as Labour support drops to lowest since June 2017

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for November shows support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition surging in November, up 5.5% points in a month to 50%, and now well ahead of the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 37.5% (down 7% points).

Support for the minor parties increased by 1.5% points to 12.5%.

If these results were repeated at next year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 65 seats in the new Parliament compared to 49 seats for Labour/Greens and a further five seats for the Maori Party.

In November support for National rebounded strongly, up 7% points to 39% - back to where support for the party was in June 2022. Support for potential coalition partners Act NZ was down slightly by 1.5% points to 11%.

The news was not good for the current governing coalition with support for Labour dropping 3.5% points to 25.5%. This is the lowest level of support for Labour for over five years since June 2017 – before Jacinda Ardern became the Labour Party leader a month later. Support for the Greens also fell in November, down 3.5% points to 12%.

Support for the Maori Party increased 1% points to 4% although if the above result were repeated at next year’s election the party would have little influence over who would form government.

In addition, 8.5% of electors (up 0.5% points) support minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First unchanged at 3.5%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 2.5% and support for the New Conservative Party was unchanged at 0.5% in November.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 926 electors during November. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, down 2% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunges 12pts to record low of 80 in November

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged by 12pts in November to 80. The indicator is now down a massive 45pts from just over a year ago in September 2021.

In November just over a third, 35% (down 7% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to a record high 55% (up 5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 4.7pts to 80.7 and is now below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 80.8 on November 21-27, 2022.

For the first time both women and men of all ages favour the National/Act NZ coalition

For the first time women favour a potential National/ Act NZ coalition (44.5%) over the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition (42.5%) – a margin of 2% points in favour of the opposition.

Support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition is stronger amongst older women aged 50+ at 46.5% compared to 43% who support Labour/ Greens. For women aged 18-49 the result is much closer with a potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 42.5% just in front of the governing Labour/ Greens on 42%.

The potential National/ Act NZ coalition enjoys far greater support amongst men at 55% - over 20% points ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens on 32.5%.

There was a margin of under 10% points for men aged 18-49 with 44.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 35% supporting Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was a larger gap with a large majority of 66% supporting National/ Act NZ more than double the support of 29.5% for Labour/ Greens.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Exactly one-in-five women aged 18-49 (20%) and around one-in-seven men aged 18-49 (14.5%) support the Greens compared to only 7.5% of women aged 50+ and 6% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of only 4.5% of men including 8.5% support from men aged 18-49 and negligible support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of women including 6% of women aged 18-49 and 2% of women aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 71.5 in November

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunged to a record low in November with falls across all four key gender and age groups.

Among women overall now a majority of 54.5% (up 6% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 34.5% (down 7.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 80 (down 13.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped by 13.5pts to 77 and for women aged 50+ was down by 15pts to 82.5.

A growing majority of men, 55% (up 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only around a third of men, 35% (down 7% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 80 (down 11pts). Younger men aged 18-49 have a Government Confidence Rating of 87 (down 13pts) while for older men aged 50+ it was down 8.5pts to only 71.5.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says National has regained support lost in the last few months as the two major parties face a crucial by-election this week in Hamilton West – often regarded as a reliable ‘bellwether seat’ to read the tone of the electorate:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – November 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

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