NZ Election is ‘too close to call’ with Labour/Greens (44.5%) even with National/Act NZ (44.5%) as minor parties surge

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the current governing Labour/Greens coalition is now even with a potential National/Act NZ coalition with both sides on 44.5% in October as support for smaller parties increased 1.5% points to 11%.

If these results were repeated at next year’s New Zealand Election it would be the Maori Party, with 3% support and potentially four seats in the next Parliament, who would determine which of the two coalitions would form the next Government.

The gap between the two sides of politics has dissipated in October as support for the Labour/Greens coalition increased 2.5% points to 44.5% to be even with a potential National/Act NZ coalition, down 4% points to 44.5%.

In October the rise in support for the governing coalition was due to an increase in support for the Greens, up 3% points to 15.5% - a new record high for the left-of-centre party. In contrast, governing partners Labour lost further support, down 0.5% points to 29% - the lowest level of support for Labour since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power over five years ago in October 2017.

The news was not good for the main Opposition National which lost significant support in October, down 4% points to 32% - the lowest support for National Leader Chris Luxon since he became leader nearly a year ago. Support for potential governing partners Act NZ was unchanged at 12.5%.

Unlike other minor parties, support for the Maori Party dropped 0.5% points to 3% in October, although the party remains the best placed of the minor parties to hold the balance of power in a new Parliament.

In addition, a minority of 8% of electors (up 2% points) support minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First up 2.5% points to 3.5%, The Opportunities Party up 0.5% points to 3% and support for the New Conservative Party was unchanged at 0.5% in October.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 951 electors during October. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 7%, up 2% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 6pts to 92 in October

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 6pts in October to 92. The indicator is now down a massive 33pts from just over a year ago in September 2021.

In October just over two-fifths, 42% (up 4.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 50% (down 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was unchanged at 85.4 and is now above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 80.8 on November 7-13, 2022.

Women favour the governing Labour/Greens while men favour a National/Act NZ coalition

Women continue to favour the Labour/ Greens coalition (50%) over a potential National/ Act NZ coalition (41%) – a gap of an even 9% points in favour of the incumbent.

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst older women aged 50+ at 52.5% compared to 43.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 the lead is of a similar margin with 47.5% supporting Labour/ Greens, and a gap of 9% points to National/Act NZ on 38.5%.

There is a stark difference for men with 48% supporting National or Act NZ compared to only 38.5% supporting Labour or the Greens. There was a narrow margin for men aged 18-49 with 44% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 42% supporting Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was a larger gap with a majority of 52.5%, supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 34.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Almost one-in-four women aged 18-49 (23.5%) and one-in-five men aged 18-49 (18.5%) support the Greens compared to only 9% of women aged 50+ and 8% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of only 2% of men including 1.5% support from men aged 18-49 and 3% support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4.5% of women including 7% of women aged 18-49 and 2% of women aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 80 in October

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating improved in October with the increases spread across the gender and age spectrums.

Among women overall now 48.5% (down 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 42% (up 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 93.5 (up 5.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 5pts to 90.5 and for women aged 50+ was up by 6pts to 97.5.

A slim majority of men, 51% (down 3% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just over two-fifths of men, 42% (up 4.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 91 (up 7pts). Younger men aged 18-49 have a far higher Government Confidence Rating of 100 (up 5pts) while for older men aged 50+ it was up 9.5pts to only 80.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says next year’s New Zealand Election is currently on a ‘knife’s edge’ with both major parties losing support in October while support has increased for the Greens, and other minor parties including NZ First and The Opportunities Party:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

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