The potential National/Act NZ (48.5%) coalition has stretched its lead over Labour/Greens (42%) to the largest since May 2022
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows a potential National/Act NZ coalition has increased its lead over the governing Labour/Greens coalition in September to the largest margin for four months since May 2022.
The gap between the two sides of politics has increased by 4.5% points in September with a potential National/Act NZ coalition up 2.5% points to 48.5% and they are now 6.5% points ahead of the governing Labour/Greens coalition on 42%, down 2% points.
In September support for National was up 0.5% points to 36% while support for fellow right-leaning party Act NZ increased by 2% points to 12.5%. Support for the Maori Party dropped in September, down 1.5% points to 3.5%.
There was a significant drop in support for Labour, down 5.5% points to 29.5%, to its lowest level of support since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power nearly five years ago in October 2017. Support for governing partners the Greens up 2.5% points to 12.5%.
In addition, a minority of 6% of electors (up 1% point) support minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First down 0.5% points to 1%, The Opportunities Party was up 1.5% points to 2.5% and support for the New Conservative Party was unchanged at 0.5% in September.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 942 electors during September. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 5%, down 1.5% points, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 1.5pts to 86 in September
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 1.5pts in September to 86. The indicator is now down a massive 39pts from a year ago in September 2021.
In September an equal record low of only 37.5% (unchanged) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 51.5% (down 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was unchanged at 85.4 and is now just below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 87.8 on September 19-25, 2022.
Support for National among women rises above Labour for the first time in September
For the first time since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017 more women support National (34%) than Labour (33%) in September. The gap is driven by women aged 18-49 who clearly support National (30.5%) over Labour (26.5%). Women aged 50+ continue to favour Labour (40.5%) over National (38%).
Women continue to narrowly favour the Labour/ Greens coalition (46.5%) over a potential National/ Act NZ coalition (44.5%). Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst older women aged 50+ at 47.5% compared to 46% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 the lead is slightly larger with 46% supporting Labour/ Greens, and a gap of 3% points to National/Act NZ on 43%.
There is a stark difference for men with a majority of 53% supporting National or Act NZ compared to only 37% supporting Labour or the Greens. There was a narrow margin for men aged 18-49 with 44% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 43% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was a much larger gap with more than twice as many, 62%, supporting National/ Act NZ compared to only 30.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.
Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Almost one-in-five women aged 18-49 (19.5%) and one-in-six men aged 18-49 (16%) support the Greens compared to only 7% of women aged 50+ and 7% of men aged 50+.
The Maori Party attracts the support of only 4% of men including 5% support from men aged 18-49 and 3% support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 3% of women including 4% of women aged 18-49 and 2% of women aged 50+.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| Total | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Labour | 29.5 | 33 | 26.5 | 40.5 | 25.5 | 27 | 23.5 |
| Greens | 12.5 | 13.5 | 19.5 | 7 | 11.5 | 16 | 7 |
| Labour/ Greens | 42 | 46.5 | 46 | 47.5 | 37 | 43 | 30.5 |
| National | 36 | 34 | 30.5 | 38 | 38 | 25.5 | 50.5 |
| Act NZ | 12.5 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 8 | 15 | 18.5 | 11.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party | 52 | 47.5 | 47 | 48 | 57 | 49 | 65 |
| Others | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4.5 | 6 | 8 | 4.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
| Right Direction | 37.5 | 38 | 36.5 | 40 | 37.5 | 43 | 31 |
| Wrong Direction | 51.5 | 50 | 51 | 48.5 | 54 | 48 | 60.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 86 | 88 | 85.5 | 91.5 | 83.5 | 95 | 70.5 |
| Can’t say | 12 | 12 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 8.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 70.5 in September
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating improved slightly in September and the increase was driven by improving sentiment among younger women and men aged 18-49.
The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 9pts in September to 85.5. In contrast, the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ was down by 5.5pts to 91.5.
There is a large difference for men of different ages with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of 95 (up 11pts) while for older men aged 50+ it was down a large 14.5pts to only 70.5.
Among women overall now 50% (down 2.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 38% (unchanged) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 88 (up 2.5pts).
Once again, a clear majority of men, 54% (up 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while under two-fifths of men, 37.5% (up 0.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 83.5 (unchanged).
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the gap between the two sides of politics opened up to over 6% points as support for Labour dropped to its lowest since being elected in 2017 and support for both National and Act NZ increased:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows an increasing lead for the right-leaning National and Act NZ with the two parties now on 48.5% (up 2.5% points from August) and clearly ahead of the governing Labour/Greens on 42% (down 2% points) in September.
“The drop in support for Labour came after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern travelled to London for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II and then travelled to New York to address the United Nations General Assembly in mid-September.
“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s overseas trips during September certainly haven’t provided a ‘boost’ in support for the governing Labour Party – their support dropped 5.5% points to 29.5% – the lowest level of support since Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017.
“One of the beneficiaries to pick up support in September were governing partners the Greens for which support increased 2.5% points to 12.5%. The Greens re-elected co-leader James Shaw with 97% of the delegate votes in September all but ensuring Shaw will lead the party to next year’s Election alongside co-leader Marama Davidson.
“The other big beneficiaries were the libertarian-minded Act NZ party which increased its support by 2% points to 12.5% – level with the Greens. At that level of support Act NZ could secure as many as 16 seats in a new National-Act NZ coalition Government later next year, more than a quarter of all seats required to govern.
“If these results were repeated at next year’s election National Leader Christopher Luxon would become the new Prime Minister and with Act NZ party leader David Seymour enjoying considerable power as the Deputy Prime Minister.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
