National support increases marginally in June as support for Labour slumps back below 30%
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for June 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has increased marginally in June, up 1% point to 49.5% with a small lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 45.5% (down 2.5% points).
For the National-led Government support for National increased 1.5% points to 35%, support for ACT decreased 0.5% points to 9.5% while support for NZ First was again unchanged at 5.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 2.5% points to 27.5%, support for the Greens was up 0.5% points to 14.5% and support for the Maori Party was up 0.5% points to 3.5%.
A further 5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (down 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 2.5% (up 1% point) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win 62 seats compared to 58 seats for Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The survey results for June would lead to 62 seats (down six seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 58 seats (up three seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 44 seats (down five seats), support for ACT would equal 11 seats (unchanged) and NZ First would win seven seats (down one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 35 seats (up one seat), Greens support would mean 18 seats (up three seats) and the Maori Party would win five seats (down one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 930 electors from May 27 – June 23, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 2% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating slumps 13pts to 83 in June
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 13ts to 83 in June. Just over a third of electors, 35.5% (down 7.5% points), said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while a majority of 52.5% (up 5.5% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 1.7pts to 83.2 and is still above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 81.3 on June 24-30, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women clearly favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 56.5%, almost double the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 38.5% - a gap of 18% points.
In contrast, a majority of women are behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 51% - ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 43.5% - a gap of 7.5% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 66% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First more than double the 31% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (41.5%), ACT (15.5%) and NZ First (9%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is a slight edge for the governing coalition with 47% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 46% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a gap of only 1% point.
Women aged 50+ also narrowly favour the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 49%, just ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 47.5% - a gap of only 1.5% points. Support for Labour is clearly strongest amongst this age group with the support of 33.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 are the biggest supporters of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 55% and well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 38% - a gap of 17% points.
Support for the Greens is strongest amongst the younger age groups with 23.5% of young men aged 18-49 supporting the party and 19.5% of young women aged 18-49 supporting the party.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | May 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 35 | 33.5 | 29 | 38 | 36.5 | 31.5 | 41.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 6.5 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 15.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5 | 6 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 9 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 49.5 | 43.5 | 38 | 49 | 56.5 | 47 | 66 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 27.5 | 31.5 | 29.5 | 33.5 | 22 | 21 | 23.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 14.5 | 15 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 14 | 23.5 | 4 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 45.5 | 51 | 55 | 47.5 | 38.5 | 46 | 31 |
| Others | 5.6 | 5 | 5.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 35.5 | 30 | 23.5 | 37.5 | 41 | 30.5 | 53 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 52.5 | 60 | 65.5 | 54 | 44.5 | 52.5 | 35.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 83 | 70 | 58 | 83.5 | 96.5 | 78 | 117.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8.5 | 14.5 | 17 | 11.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Government Confidence Rating is well above 100 for older men, but below 100 for everyone else
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 13ts to 83 in June 2024 – but still above the low of 81 in March 2024.
A plurality of men, 44.5% (up 6.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 41% (down 10.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 96.5 (down 17pts). Despite the fall overall, the Government Confidence for older men aged 50+ was up 4.5pts to 117.5, but plummeted for younger men aged 18-49, down 35.5pts to 78.
Among women overall now a majority of 60% (up 4% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just under a third, 30% (down 5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 70 (down 9pts).
The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped by 11pts to 58 – the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while Government Confidence was down 6.5pts to 83.5 for women aged 50+.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led governing coalition has consolidated its support in June with a small increase but still below 50% support for the second straight month:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition increased 1% point to 49.5% in June and is now 4% points ahead of the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 45.5% (down1.5% points).
“Support for National increased 1.5% points to 35% in June while support for their coalition partners ACT and NZ First was virtually unchanged. The increase in support for National came at the expense of the main opposition Labour, down 2.5% points to 27.5%.
“If these results were repeated at an election the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition would win 62 seats to retain Government by a narrow margin over the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 58 seats – a majority of only four seats.
“The voting intentions of New Zealanders continued to be defined by a massive gender split with a clear majority of men (56.5%) supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 38.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a large difference of 18% points.
“In contrast, a slim majority of 51% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 43.5% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a gap of 7.5% points. This represents a massive 25.5% points difference between men and women.
“As well as the long-running gender gap, there is also an age gap that has emerged. The governing National-led coalition is favoured by both older men aged 50+ (66% cf. 31%) and older women aged 50+ (49% cf. 47.5%) – albeit by vastly different margins.
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the only gender and age group to heavily favour the Parliamentary Opposition with 55% supporting the Labour/Greens/Maori Party bloc compared to only 38% supporting the National/ACT/NZ First governing coalition. Younger men aged 18-49 give the governing National-led coalition a narrow edge (47% cf. 46%).
“These differences are highlighted when looking at individual parties. Older men aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of all three governing parties: National (41.5%), ACT (15.5%) and NZ First (9%). In contrast, older women aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of Labour (33.5%) while the Greens strongest support is from young men aged 18-49 (23.5%).
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating slumped 13pts to 83 in June with a majority of 52.5% (up 5.5% points) of electors saying New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just over a third of electors, 35.5% (down 7.5% points), saying the country was ‘heading in the right direction’.
“Similarly to voting intentions, Government Confidence Ratings in June remain heavily split by gender. Men aged 50+ are the only gender and age group to have a Government Confidence Rating above 100 – at an exceptionally high 117.5. A majority of 53% of men aged 50+ say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – more than 15% points higher than any other group.
“In contrast, Government Confidence for all other groups is well below the neutral level of 100. Women aged 50 have a Government Confidence Rating of 83.5 just ahead of younger men aged 18-49 with a rating of 78. Younger women aged 18-49 are clearly the most ‘hostile’ to the current government with a Government Confidence Rating of only 58. Nearly two thirds of younger women (65.5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact: Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
