National support lowest since the election but Labour support also down as support for minor parties increases in July
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for July 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has increased marginally in July, up 0.5% points to 50%, increasing its lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 44% (down 1.5% points).
For the National-led Government support for National dropped 2.5% points to 32.5% - their lowest level of support since last year’s New Zealand election, but support for ACT was up 2% points to 11% and support for NZ First increased 1% point to 6.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 3.5% points to 24%, support for the Greens was down 0.5% points to 14% and support for the Maori Party jumped 2.5% points to 6%.
A further 6% (up 1% point) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 4.5% (up 2% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1.5% (down 1% point) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win 63 seats compared to 57 seats for Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The survey results for June would lead to 63 seats (down five seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 57 seats (up two seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 41 seats (down eight seats), support for ACT would equal 14 seats (up three seats) and NZ First would win eight seats (unchanged).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 31 seats (down three seats), Greens support would mean 18 seats (up three seats) and the Maori Party would win eight seats (up two seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 930 electors from June 24 – July 21, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 1% point) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 7pts to 90 in July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 7pts to 90 in July. Over a third of electors, 38% (up 2.5% points), said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while a plurality of 48% (down 4.5% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 4.7pts to 87.9 and is still above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 83.1 on July 22-28, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 56%, well ahead of the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 38% - a gap of 18% points.
In contrast, a high plurality of women are behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 49.5% - ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 44.5% - a gap of 5% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 63.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First almost double the 34.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (38.5%) and ACT (17%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is an edge for the governing coalition with 47.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 42% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori – a gap of 5.5% points.
Women aged 50+ favour the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 52.5%, ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 46% - a gap of 6.5% points. Support for Labour is clearly strongest amongst this age group with the support of 33.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 are the biggest supporters of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 54% and well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 34.5% - a gap of 19.5% points. Support for the Greens is clearly strongest amongst this age group with one-in-four younger women (25%) supporting the Greens compared to 16.5% of men aged 18.49.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | July 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 32.5 | 31.5 | 27 | 35.5 | 33.5 | 28 | 38.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 11 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 8 | 16 | 15 | 17 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3 | 9 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 8 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 50 | 44.5 | 34.5 | 52.5 | 56 | 47.5 | 63.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 24 | 27 | 18.5 | 33.5 | 21 | 17.5 | 24.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 8.5 | 12 | 16.5 | 7.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 6 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 2.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 44 | 49.5 | 54 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 34.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 6 | 6 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 6 | 10.5 | 2 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 38 | 32 | 27 | 37 | 44.5 | 41 | 49 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 48 | 55 | 57.5 | 52 | 40.5 | 44 | 36.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 90 | 77 | 69.5 | 85 | 104 | 97 | 112.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 14 | 13 | 15.5 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 14.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Government Confidence Rating is well above 100 for older men, but below 100 for everyone else
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 7pts to 90 in July 2024 – and now clearly above the low of 81 in March 2024.
A plurality of men, 44.5% (up 3.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 40.5% (down 4% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 104 (up 7.5pts). The positive Government Confidence for men is driven by older men aged 50+ with a Government Confidence Rating of 112.5 (despite a decline of 5pts on a month ago) while Government Confidence for men aged 18-49 jumped substantially in July, up 19pts to 97.
Among women overall now a majority of 55% (down 5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just under a third, 32% (up 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 77 (up 7pts) and dragging the overall index clearly below the neutral level of 100.
The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 11.5pts to 69.5 – the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while Government Confidence was up 1.5pts to 85 for women aged 50+.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led governing coalition has consolidated its support in July although support for his own party has dipped to its lowest since last year’s election:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition increased 0.5% points to 50% in July and is now 6% points ahead of the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 44% (down 1.5% points).
“However, despite support for the governing Coalition increasing, support for Luxon’s own National dropped 2.5% points to 32.5% in July while support for their coalition partners ACT and New Zealand First both increased. Support for ACT increased 2% points to 11% and support for New Zealand First increased 1% point to 6.5%.
“If these results were repeated at an election the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition would win 63 seats to retain Government by a comfortable margin over the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 57 seats – a majority of six seats.
“The voting intentions of New Zealanders continued to be defined by a massive gender split with a clear majority of men (56%) supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 38% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a large difference of 18% points.
“In contrast, a plurality of 49.5% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 44.5% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a gap of 5% points. This represents a massive 23% points difference between men and women.
“As well as the long-running gender gap, there is also an age gap that has emerged. The governing National-led coalition is favoured by both older men aged 50+ (63.5% cf. 34.5%) and older women aged 50+ (52.5% cf. 46%) – albeit by vastly different margins.
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the only gender and age group to heavily favour the Parliamentary Opposition with 54% supporting the Labour/Greens/Maori Party bloc compared to only 34.5% supporting the National/ACT/NZ First governing coalition. Younger men aged 18-49 give the governing National-led coalition a narrow edge (47.5% cf. 42%).
“These differences are highlighted when looking at individual parties. Older men aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of National (38.5%) and ACT (17%). In contrast, older women aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of Labour (33.5%) while the Greens strongest support is from younger women aged 18-49 (25%).
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 7pts to 90 in July with a plurality of 48% (down 4.5% points) of electors saying New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to over a third of electors, 38% (up 2.5% points), saying the country was ‘heading in the right direction’.
“Similarly to voting intentions, Government Confidence Ratings in July remain heavily split by gender. Men aged 50+ are the only gender and age group to have a Government Confidence Rating above 100 – at 112.5. A large plurality of 49% of men aged 50+ say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – at least 8% points higher than any other group.
“In contrast, Government Confidence for all other groups is below the neutral level of 100. Men aged 18-49 have a Government Confidence Rating of 97, older women aged 50+ have a Government Confidence Rating of 85.
“Younger women aged 18-49 are clearly the most ‘hostile’ to the current government with a Government Confidence Rating of only 69.5. Nearly three-fifths of younger women (57.5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
