National support up in September as National-led Government increases lead to 14% points after RBNZ cut interest rates
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for September 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has increased again, up 2% points to 55%, increasing its lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 41% (down 2% points).
For the National-led Government support for National increased 1.5% points to 37.5% - their highest level of support for six months since March 2024, support for ACT was up 0.5% points to 10% and support for NZ First was unchanged at 7.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 3.5% points to 23%, support for the Greens was up 1% point to 14% and support for the Maori Party up 0.5% points to 4%.
A further 4% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (unchanged) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1.5% (unchanged) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win 69 seats compared to 51 seats for Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The survey results for September would lead to 69 seats (up one seat from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 51 seats (down four seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 47 seats (down two seats), support for ACT would equal 13 seats (up two seats) and NZ First would win nine seats (up one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 29 seats (down five seats), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and the Maori Party would win five seats (down one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 902 electors from August 26 – September 22, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4.5% (up 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 5pts to 92.5 in September
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 5pts to 92.5 in September. Now 46.5% (up 1% point) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only, 39% (down 4% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 2.9pts to 95.1 and is still above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 82.0 on September 23-29, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 64% more than twice as popular as the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 31.5% - a gap of 32.5% points.
In contrast, exactly half of women are behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 50% - ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 46% - a gap of 4% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 64.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First, more than double the 32% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (42.5%) and NZ First (10.5%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is a similar edge for the governing coalition with 63.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 31% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori – a gap of 32.5% points. Support for the governing coalition partner ACT (21%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
In contrast to men, Women are split by age when it comes to which side of politics they support with a slim majority of older women aged 50+ supporting the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 50.5% compared to 45.5% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a gap of 5% points. Support for Labour (30%) is clearly highest amongst this gender and age group.
However, younger women aged under 50 are the strongest supporters of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 55.5%, well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 41% - a gap of 14.5% points. Support for the Greens is clearly strongest amongst this age group with almost one-in-four younger women (23.5%) supporting the Greens compared to 13.5% of men aged 18-49.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Sept. 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 37.5 | 34.5 | 30 | 38.5 | 40 | 37.5 | 42.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 10 | 4.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 16 | 21 | 11.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 5 | 9.5 | 8 | 5 | 10.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 55 | 46.5 | 41 | 50.5 | 64 | 63.5 | 64.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 23 | 28 | 25.5 | 30 | 18 | 14 | 22 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 14 | 17 | 23.5 | 11.5 | 11 | 13.5 | 8.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 4 | 5 | 6.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 41 | 50 | 55.5 | 45.5 | 31.5 | 31 | 32 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 39 | 30 | 24.5 | 35 | 48.5 | 53.5 | 42.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 46.5 | 58 | 62.5 | 53.5 | 35 | 30 | 41 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 92.5 | 72 | 62 | 81.5 | 113.5 | 123.5 | 101.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 14.5 | 12 | 13 | 11.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for men, but well below 100 for women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 5pts to 92.5 in September 2024.
A large plurality of men, 48.5% (down 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 35% (up 0.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 113.5 (down 2.5pts). The drop in Government Confidence for men in August was driven by older men aged 50+ which plunged 15pts to only 101.5. In contrast, the Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 actually increased, up 8pts to 123.5 – and clearly the highest Government Confidence Rating of any gender and age group analysed.
Among women overall now a rising majority of 58% (up 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while under a third, 30% (down 5.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 72 (up 7pts) and dragging the overall index clearly below the neutral level of 100. The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 plummeted by 18pts to only 62 – clearly the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while for women aged 50+ the Government Confidence Rating actually increased 3.5pts to 81.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led governing coalition has increased for a fourth straight month in September after the RBNZ commenced an interest rate cutting cycle in mid-August:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition increased 2% points to 55% in August and is now 14% points ahead of the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 41% (down 2% points) – the largest lead for the government for six months.
“The driver of this increase in support was National which increased 1.5% points to 37.5% in September while there was also an increase for ACT, up 0.5% points to 10% while New Zealand First was unchanged at 7.5%.
“If these results were repeated at an election the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition would win 69 seats to retain Government by a comfortable margin over the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 51 seats – a potentially massive majority of 18 seats.
“There is further good news for National with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cutting interest rates in August by 0.25% points to 5.25% – the first cut the RBNZ has made for over four years since March 2020 – at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic – and global panic.
“The cut to interest rates no doubt provided a positive boost to the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating, up 2.9pts to 95.1 to its highest for over two-and-a-half years to January 2022. However, Government Confidence declined slightly in September, down 5 points to 92.5 with more New Zealanders (46.5%) saying the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ – up 1% point from August.
“The RBNZ’s decision to cut interest rates augurs well for both Consumer Confidence and the National-led Government in terms of gaining and increasing support in the months ahead.
“Importantly, the voting intentions of New Zealanders continue to be defined by a massive gender split with nearly two-thirds of men (64%) supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to fewer than a third, only 31.5%, supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a large difference of 32.5% points.
“In contrast, 50% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 46.5% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a gap of only 3.5% points. This represents a massive 36% points difference between men and women.
“As well as the long-running gender gap, there are also significant age gaps emerging in the data. The biggest supporters of the governing National-led coalition are older men aged 50+, 64.5% of whom support the government compared to only 32% that support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition.
“In contrast, the biggest supporters of the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition are younger women aged 18-49 with support of 55.5% compared to only 41% that support the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition. Younger women are the only gender and age group for which a majority of voters support the Parliamentary Opposition.
“These differences are highlighted when looking at individual parties. Men aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of National (42.5%) and New Zealand First (10.5%). In contrast, Women aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of Labour (30%) while the Greens strongest support is from women aged 18-49 (23.5%) – 10% points higher than for men of the same age (13.5%).”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
