ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.8% in mid-September – down from 5.0% for the month of August
The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of September 9-15, 2024. This figure is below the average so far this year of 5.0%, and down 0.2% points from the month of August.
A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for August 2024 shows the measure at 5.0% for the month – down 0.1% points from a month earlier and in line with the average so far this year of 5.0%.
Looking back over the first eight months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.6% - 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – August 2024).
Petrol prices dropped by four cents per litre in August to the lowest since January 2024
The month of August saw average retail petrol prices drop by four cents per litre to $1.86 per litre. After the month of August ended average retail petrol prices have subsequently remained low at below $1.85 per litre while weekly inflation expectations dropped to their lowest in nearly three years in early September.
Looking back, average retail petrol prices have now been above $1.70 per litre for a record 103 straight weeks since mid-September 2022 – almost two years. Average retail petrol prices hit a monthly low of $1.82 per litre in the second half of August and are now even lower at $1.78 per litre in mid-September.
Looking longer-term, average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.94 per litre since late January.
The persistently high petrol prices are clearly a key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations. The latest official ABS Monthly annual CPI figure at 3.5% for the month of July, still above the recent lows earlier this year of 3.4% for the three months of December 2023 – February 2024.
The official inflation figure of 3.5% for the 12 months to July remains clearly above the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle has led to continued discussion of potential further RBA interest rate increases that may be undertaken over the remainder of the year.
The next ABS Monthly annual CPI figure for August 2024 is due out next week (September 25).
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2024
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
Inflation Expectations are highest in Queensland, lowest in Tasmania and Western Australia
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows decreases in the four States of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania, an unchanged result in Western Australia, but, going against the trend, an increase in Victoria.
Despite a decline of 0.1% points to 5.4%, Inflation Expectations are once again higher in Queensland than any other State. Inflation Expectations in Queensland have averaged 5.6% so far this year – over 0.5% points higher than any other State.
Inflation Expectations also fell in New South Wales, down 0.2% points to 5.0%, in South Australia, by a large 0.9% points to 5.0%, and in Tasmania by 0.1% points to only 4.3%. These are the lowest Inflation Expectations in Tasmania for over three years since July 2021.
In contrast, Inflation Expectations increased by 0.1% points to 4.8% in Victoria and were unchanged at 4.7% in Western Australia.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas increased 0.1% points to 5.2%, and are now above the national average, while Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities dropped 0.1% points to 4.9%.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% in mid-September, down 0.2% points from the monthly figure of 5.0% for August, as average retail petrol prices declined in August but still spent a record 61 weeks, over a year, above $1.80 per litre:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia declined in mid-September and are now at 4.8%, down 0.2% points from the month of August (5.0%). Inflation Expectations for the month of August had decreased 0.1% points from the month of July (5.1%).
“Average retail petrol prices were at $1.95 per litre in late July and have since dropped significantly, down by over 10 cents a litre to an average of $1.82 per litre throughout the second half of August, and this decline has continued in recent weeks to under $1.80 per litre in mid-September.
“The decline in average petrol prices of nearly 20 cents per litre since late July has mirrored a drop in Inflation Expectations during this period, which dropped in August and have continued to decline in early September to their lowest levels in almost three years.
“However, over the longer-term petrol prices were above $1.80 per litre for 61 straight weeks from mid-July 2023 until early September – over a full year above this mark. In addition, since late January average weekly petrol prices have averaged a very high $1.94 per litre.
“Looking forward, the ABS is set to release the August 2024 monthly CPI figures next week. The ABS figures will be keenly watched to see if the monthly figure continues to decline (3.5% for July, down 0.3% points from June and down 0.5% points since May), remains unchanged or even increases.
“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations suggest the upward pressures on inflation were short-lived during July and have subsided in the subsequent months of August and September as energy costs have fallen. The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from September 2014 – August 2024 and includes interviews with 5,974 Australians aged 14+ in August 2024.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward-looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
| Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2024) | |||||||||||||
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly Average |
| 2010 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 2013 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2014 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2018 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | ||||
| Monthly Average | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Overall: Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8 | |||||||||||||
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Report – Including Inflation Expectations
To learn more about the trends for Inflation Expectations as well as Consumer Confidence for different segments and demographics throughout the Australian community, purchase the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
