ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.8% in late August – down from 5.1% for the month of July
The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of August 19-25, 2024. This figure is below the average so far this year of 5.0%, and down 0.3% points from the month of July.
A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for July 2024 shows the measure at 5.1% for the month – up 0.2% points from a month earlier and the highest monthly figure since April 2024 (5.2%).
Looking back over the first seven months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations moved in a narrow band of 4.8% - 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – July 2024).
Petrol prices dropped by over three cents per litre in July to the lowest since January 2024
The month of July saw average retail petrol prices drop by over three cents per litre to $1.90 per litre and a weekly low of $1.86 per litre in early July before increasing throughout the rest of the month.
After the month of July ended average retail petrol prices subsequently declined throughout the month of August and have so far averaged under $1.90 per litre during the month. Looking back, average retail petrol prices have now been above $1.80 per litre for a record 59 straight weeks since mid-July 2023 – over a year.
Average retail petrol prices hit a low of $1.86 per litre in early July and are now even lower at $1.82 per litre in late August. Average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.95 per litre since mid-January.
The persistently high petrol prices are clearly a key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations. The latest official ABS Monthly annual CPI figure at 3.8% for the month of June is up 0.4% points from a low of 3.4% for the three months of December 2023 – February 2024.
The recent increases in the official inflation figures in the last few months above the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle has led to renewed discussion of further RBA interest rate increases that may be undertaken over the remainder of the year.
The next ABS Monthly annual CPI figure for June 2024 is due out later this week (August 28).
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2024
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
Inflation Expectations are highest in South Australia and Queensland, lowest in Tasmania
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows increases in South Australia, Queensland and New South Wales, but decreases in Western Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.
Inflation Expectations were highest in South Australia for the first time since October 2023, and up 1.1% points to 5.9% in July and now higher than in Queensland at 5.5%, up 0.1% points. Inflation Expectations in Queensland have been above 5% for over two years since January 2022.
Inflation Expectations also increased rapidly in New South Wales, up 0.6% points to 5.2%.
Inflation Expectations are now lowest in Tasmania at 4.4%, down 0.6% points from a month ago, and also fell in Western Australia, down 0.5% points to 4.7% and in Victoria, down 0.1% points to 4.7%.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas increased 0.3% points to 5.1%, reversing the decline of a month ago and are once again higher than in Capital Cities at 5.0%, up 0.1% points on a month ago.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% in late August, down 0.3% points from the monthly figure of 5.1% for July as average retail petrol prices declined in July but have still spent a record 59 weeks, over a year, above $1.80 per litre:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia declined in late August and are now at 4.8%, down 0.3% points from the month of July (5.1%). Inflation Expectations for the month of July had increased 0.2% points from the months of May and June (4.9% in both months).
“Average retail petrol prices were at $1.85 per litre in early June before increasing to a cycle high of $1.95 per litre in late July – an increase of 10 cents per litre as monthly Inflation Expectations increased by 0.2% points in July.
“Since late July average retail petrol prices have dropped by over 12 cents per litre over the last few weeks as the latest weekly Inflation Expectations have also declined into late August.
“However, over the longer-term petrol prices have been above $1.80 per litre for 59 straight weeks since mid-July 2023 – over a full year above this mark. In addition, since mid-January average weekly petrol prices have averaged a very high $1.95 per litre.
“Looking forward, the ABS is set to release the July 2024 monthly CPI figures later this week. The ABS figures will be keenly watched to see if the monthly figure continues to decline (3.8% for June, down 0.2% points from May), remains unchanged or even increases.
“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations suggest the upward pressures on inflation were short-lived during July and have subsided in recent weeks as energy costs have fallen. The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from August 2014 – July 2024 and includes interviews with 6,088 Australians aged 14+ in July 2024.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward-looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
| Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2024) | |||||||||||||
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly Average |
| 2010 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 2013 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2014 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2018 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | |||||
| Monthly Average | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Overall: Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8 | |||||||||||||
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Report – Including Inflation Expectations
To learn more about the trends for Inflation Expectations as well as Consumer Confidence for different segments and demographics throughout the Australian community, purchase the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
