ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in late June have stabilised at 4.8% – down only slightly from the month of May
The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of June 17-24, 2024. This figure is below the average so far this year of 5.0%, and down 0.1% points from the month of May.
A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May 2024 shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – the equal lowest monthly figure so far this year and down 0.3% points from April 2024 (5.2%).
Looking back over the last few months, since the start of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% - 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – May 2024).
Petrol prices dropped by over six cents per litre in May – the biggest monthly decline so far this year
The month of May saw average retail petrol prices drop by over six cents per litre to $1.97 per litre and a weekly low below $1.90 per litre in late May for the first time for over four months since January 2024.
After the month of May ended average retail petrol prices continued to fall in early June and the monthly average so far in June has stabilised below the average price in May. However, despite petrol prices continuing to decline in June, average retail petrol prices have now been above $1.80 per litre for a record 50 straight weeks since mid-July 2023 – nearly a full year.
Average retail petrol prices hit a low of $1.85 per litre in early June and have since increased by over 10 cents per litre to $1.98 per litre in mid-June. Average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.99 per litre since late February.
The persistently high petrol prices are clearly a key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations. The latest official ABS Monthly annual CPI figure at 3.6% for the month of April is up 0.2% points from a low of 3.4% for the three months of December 2023 – February 2024.
The recent increases in the official inflation figures in the last few months above the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle has led to renewed discussion of further RBA interest rate increases that may be undertaken over the remainder of the year.
The next ABS Monthly annual CPI figure for May 2024 is due out later this week (June 26).
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2024
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
Inflation Expectations fell in all States in May with the exception of Western Australia
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows decreases in five States in May led by the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. There were also decreases in South Australia and Tasmania. In contrast, Inflation Expectations were unchanged in Western Australia.
The biggest decreases for Inflation Expectations were in New South Wales, down 0.4% points to 4.8% and Queensland, down 0.3% points 5.5%. Nevertheless, Inflation Expectations in Queensland continue to be the highest of any State for the sixth consecutive month.
There were also declines in Inflation Expectations in Victoria, down 0.2% points to 4.7%, South Australia, down 0.2% points to 4.7% and Tasmania, down 0.3% points to 5.3%. Inflation Expectations in Victoria and South Australia are now lower than any other States.
Inflation Expectations were unchanged, and in line with the national average, in Western Australia at 4.9%.
Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities decreased 0.2% points to 4.8% in May but are still clearly lower than in Country Areas, down 0.4% points to 5.1% - and the lowest for these areas for over two years since December 2021.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% in late June, down slightly from the monthly figure of 4.9% for May as average retail petrol prices decreased from $1.97 per litre in late May to an average of $1.94 so far in June:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia have gently decreased over the last few weeks and are now at 4.8%, down 0.1% points from the month of May (4.9%). Inflation Expectations for the month of May were down 0.3% points from April (5.2%) as petrol prices declined.
“Average retail petrol prices hit a cycle high of $2.12 per litre in late April – the highest average retail petrol prices since reaching the same level nearly two years ago in July 2022. Since then, average retail petrol prices dropped by over 25 cents per litre by late May before again increasing in June.
“Over the longer-term petrol prices have been above $1.80 per litre for 50 straight weeks since mid-July 2023 – almost a full year above this mark. In addition, since late February average weekly petrol prices have averaged a very high $1.99 per litre.
“Looking forward, the ABS is set to release the May 2024 monthly CPI figures later this week. The ABS figures will be keenly watched to see if the increases seen in recent months continue (increasing from 3.4% in December 2023 – February 2024 to 3.6% in April 2024).
“The good news is that average petrol prices declined in May, down by over six cents per litre and the first decline in monthly petrol prices since January. The drop in petrol prices had a clear impact on Inflation Expectations in May, which were down by 0.3% points from April, and would expect to put downward pressure on the official ABS inflation figures.
“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations suggest the upward pressures on inflation were short-lived during April and have since subsided as energy costs have fallen in May and early June. The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from June 2014 – May 2024 and includes interviews with 6,026 Australians aged 14+ in May 2024.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward-looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
| Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2024) | |||||||||||||
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly Average |
| 2010 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 2013 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2014 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2018 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |||||||
| Monthly Average | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Overall: Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8 | |||||||||||||
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Report – Including Inflation Expectations
To learn more about the trends for Inflation Expectations as well as Consumer Confidence for different segments and demographics throughout the Australian community, purchase the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
