ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations up marginally in late July at 5.0% – from 4.9% for the month of June
The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 5.0% for the week of July 22-28, 2024. This figure is in line with the average so far this year of 5.0%, and up 0.1% points from the month of June.
A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for June 2024 shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – unchanged on a month earlier and the equal lowest monthly figure so far this year.
Looking back over the first six months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% - 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – June 2024).
Petrol prices dropped by over three cents per litre in June to the lowest since January 2024
The month of June saw average retail petrol prices drop by over three cents per litre to $1.93 per litre and a weekly low of $1.85 per litre in early June before increasing throughout the rest of the month.
After the month of June ended average retail petrol prices have remained relatively stable so far in July but are marginally lower than in June at an average of $1.90 per litre. Looking back, average retail petrol prices have now been above $1.80 per litre for a record 55 straight weeks since mid-July 2023 – over a year.
Average retail petrol prices hit a low of $1.85 per litre in early June and have since increased slightly to $1.95 per litre in late July. Average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.97 per litre since late February.
The persistently high petrol prices are clearly a key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations. The latest official ABS Monthly annual CPI figure at 4.0% for the month of May is up 0.6% points from a low of 3.4% for the three months of December 2023 – February 2024.
The recent increases in the official inflation figures in the last few months above the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle has led to renewed discussion of further RBA interest rate increases that may be undertaken over the remainder of the year.
The next ABS Monthly annual CPI figure for June 2024 is due out later this week (July 31).
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2024
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
Inflation Expectations are again higher in Queensland than any other State
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows increases in Western Australia and South Australia, decreases in New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania and unchanged in Victoria.
Inflation Expectations were once again highest in Queensland at 5.5%, up 0.1% points. Inflation Expectations in Queensland have been the highest in Australia all year averaging 5.7% during the first half of the year – far higher than the national average in 2024 of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations in Queensland have been above 5% for over two years since January 2022.
Inflation Expectations are now lowest in New South Wales at 4.6%, down 0.2% points and also fell in Tasmania, down 0.3% points to 5.0%. Inflation Expectations in Victoria were unchanged at 4.8%.
There were two States for which Inflation Expectations increased including in Western Australia, up 0.3% points to 5.2% and South Australia, up 0.1% points to 4.8%.
Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities increased 0.1% points to 4.9% in June and are higher than in Country Areas for the first time in over four years since May 2020. Inflation Expectations in Country Areas fell 0.3% points to 4.8% - the lowest level in these areas for nearly three years since September 2021 (4.7%).
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 5.0% in late July, up slightly from the monthly figure of 4.9% for June as average retail petrol prices have now spent a record 55 weeks, over a year, above $1.80 per litre:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia have remained relatively unchanged over the last few weeks and are now at 5.0%, up only 0.1% points from the month of June (4.9%). Inflation Expectations for the month of June were unchanged from a month earlier.
“Average retail petrol prices hit a cycle high of $2.02 per litre in mid-June – up from a low of $1.85 earlier in the same month. Since then, average retail petrol prices have dropped by around seven cents per litre but on a monthly basis changed little from late June and throughout July.
“Over the longer-term petrol prices have been above $1.80 per litre for 55 straight weeks since mid-July 2023 – over a full year above this mark. In addition, since late February average weekly petrol prices have averaged a very high $1.97 per litre.
“Looking forward, the ABS is set to release the June 2024 monthly CPI figures later this week. The ABS figures will be keenly watched to see if the increases seen in recent months continue (increasing from 3.4% in December 2023 – February 2024 to 4.0% in May 2024).
“The good news is that average petrol prices declined in June, down by over three cents per litre and have declined further during the opening weeks of July before stabilising later in the month.
“The latest results from the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations suggest the upward pressures on inflation were short-lived during April and May and have since subsided in recent months as energy costs have fallen. The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, shows how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from July 2014 – June 2024 and includes interviews with 6,033 Australians aged 14+ in June 2024.
The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward-looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
| Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2024) | |||||||||||||
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly Average |
| 2010 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 2013 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2014 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2018 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | ||||||
| Monthly Average | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Overall: Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8 | |||||||||||||
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Report – Including Inflation Expectations
To learn more about the trends for Inflation Expectations as well as Consumer Confidence for different segments and demographics throughout the Australian community, purchase the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
