ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence increases 5.1pts to 98.3 in April
ANZ NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: back on the up
Key points
- ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose 5.1 points to 98.3 in April, shoring up the upward trend that was starting to look wobbly.
- The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose 5 points, but at a net rating of -11 it’s still nothing flash.
- Inflation Expectations soared 0.5pts to 4.7%, the highest reading since July 2023. It may be related to global tariff talk, but since New Zealand is not putting on new tariffs, global developments are unlikely to be inflationary here.
Turning to the detail:
- The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions rose 4 points to 105.2. The current conditions index lifted 6 points to 88.0.
- Net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 8 points to -13% with 26% (up 2% points) of New Zealanders saying they are 'better off financially' than this time a year ago compared to 39% (down 5% points) saying they are 'worse off financially'.
- A net 23% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year, up 7 points from March with 44% (up 2% points) of New Zealanders expecting to be 'better off financially' this time next year compared to only 22% (down 4% points) who expect to be 'worse off financially'.
- A net 11% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, an improvement of 5 points from April with 44% (unchanged) of New Zealanders who say it is a 'bad time to buy a major household item' compared to only 33% (up 4% points) who say it is a 'good time to buy a major household item'.
- In further good news, net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time rose 4 points to -16% in April and the 5-year-ahead measure rose from 6% to 9%.
- House price inflation expectations were steady at 3.4% year-over-year.
- Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations jumped from 4.2% to 4.7%, the highest read in nearly two years.
- For charts see page 4 of the linked PDF.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose 5.1 points in April, with a broad-based lift across the component questions. The most telling question for retailers is whether people think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. While it did improve, figure 2 in the linked PDF shows that it’s still a long way from suggesting good times for the retail sector.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
