ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence drops 3.4pts to 93.2 in March – lowest since October 2024

Bit of a slog

Key points

• ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 3.4 points to 93.2 in March. While it’s still trending higher, it’s fair to say it’s making hard work of it.
• The net proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item, the best retail indicator, eased 1 point to -16.
• Inflation expectations rose 0.2% pts to 4.2%. While that’s a small increase, it’s the first time since June 2024 that expectations have been above 4%.

Turning to the detail:

• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions eased 2 points to 100.7. The current conditions index fell 5 points to 81.9.
• Net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 9 points to -21% with under a quarter, only 24% (down 2% points from a month ago) of New Zealanders saying they are 'better off' financially than a year ago compared to a plurality of 44% (up 6% points) who say they are 'worse off'.
• A net 16% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year, down 5 points from February, with a plurality of 42% (down 2% points from a month ago) of New Zealanders saying they expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year compared to 26% (up 2% points) who expect to be 'worse off'.
• A net 16% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, little changed, with under a third, only 29% (up 1% points from a month ago) of New Zealanders saying now is a 'good time to buy' major household items compared to 44% (up 2% points) who say it is a 'bad time to buy'.
• Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 4 points to -20%. The net perceptions of the 5-year-ahead measure rose from 5% to 6%.
• House price inflation expectations lifted slightly from 3.2% to 3.4% year-over-year.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose 0.2% pts to 4.2%.
• For extensive and detailed charts see page 4 of the PDF.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell in March, with declines seen across nearly all components. The most telling question for retailers is whether people think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. People with mortgages are now meaningfully keener to spend than those without, which is very unusual (figure 2 of the linked PDF). Retailers will be hoping that that indicates some pent-up demand. However, figure 3 (in the linked PDF) shows that a significant improvement is needed before the ‘good time to buy’ indicator will be pointing to good times for the retail sector.

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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