National-led Government and Labour-led Parliamentary opposition tied on 47.5% each in February
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for February 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 47.5% (down 2.5% points) tied with the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 47.5% (up 1% point).
There were changes in the composition of support for the National-led Government with National down 2% points to 30.5% and NZ First down 2.5% points to 6%. However, coalition partner ACT increased their support, up 1% point to 11%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 0.5% points to 29% and support for the Greens jumped 4% points to 15.5% - the highest level of support for the party for exactly a year since February 2024. In contrast, support for the Maori Party dropped 3.5% points to 3%.
A further 5% (up 1.5%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 2.5% (up 0.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First and Labour/ Greens/ Maori would both win 60 seats on current support
The survey results for February would lead to 60 seats (down eight seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition and level with the 60 seats (up five seats) being won by the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 39 seats (down ten seats), support for ACT would equal 14 seats (up three seats) and NZ First would win seven seats (down one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 37 seats (up three seats), Greens support would mean 19 seats (up four seats) and the Maori Party would win four seats (down two seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 888 electors from January 27 – February 23, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 2% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 1pt to 90 in February
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 1pt to 90 in February with a plurality of 49% (up 0.5% points) of electors saying New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 39% (up 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was little changed at 96.6 and is about 10 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 87.7 on February 24 – March 2, 2025.
Men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The ‘gender split’ continues in February with a majority of 55% of men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 40% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
In a striking contrast, on an overall basis women remain heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 55.5% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 40%.
Support for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition is highest amongst older men aged 50+ at 56.5% compared to 41% for the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support NZ First (9%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 are also similarly in support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 53.5% compared to 38% who support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for ACT (20%) is higher among this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Younger women aged 18-49 drive the support for the Opposition and heavily favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 61.5%, more than double the support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on only 30%. Support for the Greens (30.5%) is higher than total support for the National-led Government and higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed. Support for the Maori Party (6%) is also higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are split down the middle and narrowly in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 50% just ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 49%. Support for the two major parties, National (36.5%) and Labour (35.5%) is emblematic of the overall difference of 1% and higher amongst this group than any other gender or age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Feb. 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 30.5 | 29 | 21.5 | 36.5 | 31.5 | 29 | 34 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 11 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 8 | 16.5 | 20 | 13.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 6 | 4.5 | 4 | 5.5 | 7 | 4.5 | 9 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 47.5 | 40 | 30 | 50 | 55 | 53.5 | 56.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 29 | 30.5 | 25 | 35.5 | 28 | 25.5 | 30 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 15.5 | 21 | 30.5 | 12 | 9.5 | 9 | 10 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 47.5 | 55.5 | 61.5 | 49 | 40 | 38 | 41 |
| Others | 5.6 | 5 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 5 | 8.5 | 2.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 39 | 34 | 35 | 33 | 44.5 | 46.5 | 41.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 49 | 52 | 51 | 52.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 46 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 90 | 82 | 84 | 80.5 | 99 | 101 | 95.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14.5 | 10 | 8 | 12.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for younger men, but below 100 for everyone else
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged in February 2025, up 1pt to 90 – but there were significant gender differences between women and men.
Men were basically split down the middle on the question with 45.5% (up 7% points) saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 44.5% (down 1.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating marginally in negative territory at 99 (down 8.5pts).
The drop in Government Confidence for men in February was driven by decreases in confidence by men of all ages. Government Confidence for younger men aged 18-49 dropped 11pts to 101 – and now the only Government Confidence Rating of any gender and age group in positive territory. There was also a decrease for older men aged 50+, down 6.5pts to 95.5.
Among women overall now a majority of 52% (down 6% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 34% (up 4.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 82 (up 10.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased 24.5pts to 84, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ dropped 4 points to 80.5 and now the lowest of any gender and age group analysed.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the two sides of politics can’t be split in February with the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition and Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party both garnering 47.5% support from New Zealand electors:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition softened for a second straight month in February, down 2.5% points to 47.5% and is now in a tie with the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 47.5%, up 1% point.
“For the governing coalition, support for National dropped 2% points to 30.5%, and support for NZ First was down 2.5% points to 6%. However, support for ACT increased 2% points to 11%.
“The fall in support for National came as Commerce Minister Andrew Bayly resigned in mid-February after placing a hand on a staff member’s upper arm during what he described as an ‘overbearing’ manner during an ‘animated discussion’.
“The Opposition has extracted significant political mileage out of the scandal with Labour Leader Chris Hipkins calling an ‘urgent debate’ of Parliament to discuss the circumstances surrounding Bayly’s resignation.
“The ‘urgent debate’ saw a series of Opposition MPs, including Hipkins, Labour MPs Carmel Sepuloni and Arena Williams, Maori Party co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Greens MP Ricardo Menendez March question the account provided by Bayly about what happened and that there must be more to the resignation than simply ‘putting your hand on someone’s shoulder’.
“Bayly’s resignation was the first by a Minister of their own accord during the Luxon Government for whom the honeymoon is definitely over. The New Zealand economy has been at a standstill since the 2023 election and grew by only 0.1% in the year to September 2024.
“The economic challenges for the Luxon Government are clear and they will be relieved the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates for a fourth consecutive meeting in February, down 0.5% to 3.75%. Interest rates have now been cut by a total of 1.75% since August 2024.
“The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating continues to languish in negative territory at only 90, virtually unchanged from a month ago. A large plurality of 49% of people say New Zealand is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 39% that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
“In addition, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence is at only 96.6 in February and has averaged only 91.8 since Luxon became Prime Minister. For a Government fast-approaching the mid-point of its term in office these are concerning circumstances. The last New Zealand Government to be voted out after only one term in office was the Third Labour-led Government in office fifty years ago from 1972-1975.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
