Support for National-led Government increases in December with National, ACT and NZ First all up
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for December 2024 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 51.5% (up 7.5% points) and clearly ahead of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 44% (down 6.5% points).
For the National-led Government there were increases for all three coalition parties led by National, up 2.5% points to 31% and joined by ACT, up 4% points to 13% and NZ First, up 1% point to 7.5%. This is the highest level of support for ACT since the 2023 New Zealand Election.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 2% points to 26%, support for the Greens was unchanged at 13.5% and support for the Maori Party was down 3.5% points to 5.5%.
A further 3.5% (down 2% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 1% (down 2.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 2.5% (up 0.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win 64 seats compared to 56 seats for Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The survey results for December would lead to 64 seats (down 4 seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 56 seats (up 1 seat) being won by the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 39 seats (down 10 seats), support for ACT would equal 16 seats (up five seats) and NZ First would win nine seats (up one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 32 seats (down two seats), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and the Maori Party would win 7 seats (up one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 885 electors from November 25 – December 15, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 1% point) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 21.5pts to 82.5 in December
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 21.5pts to 82.5 in December – the lowest rating for this indicator for nine months since March 2024 (81).
Now a majority of 52.5% (up 10% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 35% (down 11.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand increased 0.4pts to 100.2 and clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 85.8 on January 13-19, 2025.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis men clearly favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 65% with more than double the support of the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 31.5% - a gap of 33.5% points.
In a striking contrast, on an overall basis women remain heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 58.5% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 37.5% - a gap of 21% points.
Support for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition is highest amongst older men aged 50+ at 69%, well over 40% points ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 27%. Support for National (41.5%) and NZ First (13.5%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 are also firmly in support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 62% compared to 35.5% who support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. ACT, on 19.5%, has clearly its highest support from this gender and age group.
In contrast to men, Women are split between the two major political blocks based on their age. Younger women aged 18-49 favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 72%, almost three times as much support as the 25.5% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition. Support for Labour (35%) the Greens (25%) and the Maori Party (12%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 50% compared to 44.5% supporting the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a gap of only 5.5% and the smallest gap between the two sides of politics for any of the gender and age groups analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Dec. 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31 | 22.5 | 14.5 | 30.5 | 39.5 | 38 | 41.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 19.5 | 14 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 7.5 | 6 | 4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 13.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 51.5 | 37.5 | 25.5 | 50 | 65 | 62 | 69 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 26 | 33.5 | 35 | 31.5 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 17.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13.5 | 17 | 25 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 11 | 8.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 5.5 | 8 | 12 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 45 | 58.5 | 72 | 44.5 | 31.5 | 35.5 | 27 |
| Others | 5.6 | 3.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 35 | 29 | 27.5 | 30.5 | 41.5 | 43 | 39.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 52.5 | 61 | 62 | 60 | 43 | 37.5 | 50 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 82.5 | 68 | 65.5 | 70.5 | 98.5 | 105.5 | 89.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 12.5 | 10 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 10.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for younger men, but well below 100 for women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 21.5pts to 82.5 in December 2024.
A slim plurality of men, 43% (up 8% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 41.5% (down 12.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating marginally in negative territory at 98 (down a large 20.5pts).
The decrease in Government Confidence for men in December was driven by significant falls for younger men aged 18-49, down 21pts to 105.5, but still in positive territory – and again clearly the highest Government Confidence Rating of any gender and age group analysed. There was also a large fall for older men aged 50+, down 20pts to 89.5.
Among women overall now a clear majority of 61% (up 11.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 29% (down 10% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 68 (down 21.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped 16pts to 65.5 – still the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while for women aged 50+ the Government Confidence Rating plunged 27.5pts to 70.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led governing coalition has recovered in December after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand dropped interest rates to a new two-year low of 4.25%:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition recovered lost ground in December, increasing by 7.5% points to 51.5% with support for all three governing parties increasing on a month earlier.
“Support for National increased 2.5% points to 31%, support for ACT increased 4% points to 31% and support for NZ First increased 1% point to 7.5%. Importantly, this is the highest level of support for ACT since the last New Zealand Election in October 2023.
“The recovery in the National-led Government’s support in December followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to cut interest rates for a third consecutive meeting in late November, cutting by 0.50% to 4.25%. This is the lowest level of interest rates in New Zealand for nearly two years since February 2023.
“The RBNZ’s decision to reduce interest rates in November came as economic growth slowed to a crawl with annual GDP growth of only 0.1% in the year to September 2024. This is the lowest annual growth since mid-2021 during the height of the pandemic.
“Since mid-2021 growth in the New Zealand economy has struggled to be maintained on a consistent basis and is yet to achieve growth in three straight quarters since mid-2021. Of the last 14 quarters (since June 2021), there have been only seven quarters of growth.
“The concerning figures surrounding the sluggish growth in the New Zealand economy are reflected in the latest figures for the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which plunged, down 21.5 points to 82.5 – its lowest for nearly a year since March 2024. Now a majority of 52.5% of New Zealanders say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, up 10% points from a month ago.
“In contrast to the rising support for the Government, support for the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party is now on 45% – down by 5.5% points in a month and relinquishing a lead held by the Opposition for the prior two months of October and November 2024.
“The breakdowns by gender and age are instructive and continue show a clear split in support between women and men, and particularly between young women and young men.
“Overall, 65% of men support the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition compared to 31.5% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a gap of 33.5% points. In contrast, 58.5% of women support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party compared to 37.5% support the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition – a gap of 21% points. This is an overall gender gap of 54.5% points.
“For younger people this gap is even larger. A majority of 62% of younger men aged 18-49 support the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition compared to 35.5% – a gap of 26.5% points. In contrast, nearly three-quarters of younger women (72%) support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party compared to only 25.5% that support the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition – a gap of 46.5% points and an overall gender gap of a massive 73% points!
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
