National support down again in November as Government seeks to redefine the Treaty of Waitangi
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for November 2024 shows the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 50.5% (up 2.5% points) consolidating their lead over the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 44% (down 3% points).
For the National-led Government it was a decline in support for National, down 2.5% points to 28.5% that drove the overall fall in support. This is the lowest level of support for National since Christopher Luxon became National leader three years ago in late November 2021. Support for ACT was unchanged at 9% and support for NZ First was down 0.5% points at 6.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 1% point to 28%, support for the Greens was down 0.5% points at 13.5% and support for the Maori Party was up 4% points to 9% - a record high level of support for the Maori Party.
A further 5.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 3.5% (up 1.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 2% (down 1% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Labour/ Greens/ Maori would win 64 seats compared to 56 seats for National/ ACT/ NZ First
The survey results for November would lead to 64 seats (up nine seats from the election) being won by the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition compared to 56 seats (down 12 seats) for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 37 seats (down 12 seats), support for ACT would equal 11 seats (unchanged) and NZ First would win eight seats (unchanged).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 36 seats (up two seats), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and the Maori Party would win 11 seats (up five seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 866 electors from October 28 – November 24, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumps 18pts to 104 in November
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 18pts to 104 in November – the first time Government Confidence has been in positive territory above 100 for nearly three years since January 2022.
Now 46.5% (up 10% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 42.5% (down 8% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand increased 8.6pts to 99.8 and clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 85.7 on November 18-24, 2024.
Women clearly favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori while men narrowly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First
On an overall basis women are heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 54.5% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 40.5% - a gap of 14% points.
In contrast, on an overall basis men narrowly favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 48.5% with a small lead over the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 46% - a gap of 2.5% points.
Older men are now the only gender and age group supporting the governing coalition. Now 60% of men aged 50+ support National/ ACT/ NZ First, over 20% points ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 36%. Support for NZ First (14.5%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
However, younger men aged 18-49, have swung behind the opposition and now 56.5% support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party compared to only 36.5% supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition. Nevertheless, the governing coalition partner ACT, on 14.5%, has its highest support from this gender and age group as does the Maori Party on 18%.
In contrast to men, Women of all ages support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party, although by different margins. Younger women aged 18-49 favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 57% well ahead of the 35% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition. Support for Labour, at 34.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are more evenly split with a small majority of 52%, supporting the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party compared to 46% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First – a gap of only 6% points. This is the closest gap between the two sides of politics for any of the gender and age groups analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Nov. 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 28.5 | 31 | 27.5 | 34 | 26 | 18 | 34 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9 | 5 | 4.5 | 6 | 13 | 14.5 | 11.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 6 | 9.5 | 4 | 14.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 44 | 40.5 | 35 | 46 | 48.5 | 36.5 | 60 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 28 | 31 | 34.5 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 27 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13.5 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 10.5 | 15.5 | 5.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 9 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 9 | 10.5 | 18 | 3.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 50.5 | 54.5 | 57 | 52 | 46 | 56.5 | 36 |
| Others | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 5.5 | 7 | 4 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 46.5 | 39 | 34 | 44 | 54 | 59 | 48 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 42.5 | 49.5 | 52.5 | 46 | 35 | 32.5 | 38.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 104 | 89.5 | 81.5 | 98 | 119 | 126.5 | 109.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 11 | 11.5 | 13.5 | 10 | 11 | 8.5 | 13.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for men, but below 100 for women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumped 18pts to 104 in November 2024.
A clear majority of men, 54% (up 12% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 35% (down 7.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating well into positive territory at 119 (up 19.5pts).
The increase in Government Confidence for men in November was driven by younger men aged 18-49 with an increase of a massive 32.5pts to 126.5 – and is now clearly the highest Government Confidence Rating of any gender and age group analysed. In contrast, the Government Confidence Rating for older men aged 50+ increased modestly in November, up 2.5pts to 109.5.
Among women overall now a plurality of 49.5% (down 8% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 39% (up 7.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 89.5 (up 15.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 10.5pts to 81.5 – still the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while for women aged 50+ the Government Confidence Rating jumped 21.5pts to 98.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led governing coalition has dropped again in November after the Government’s controversial decision to consider reinterpreting the 184-year-old Treaty of Waitangi:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition dropped a further 3% points to 44% in November – the lowest level of support since last year’s election.
“The National-led Government’s contentious decision to seek changes to the Treaty of Waitangi has led to widespread protests throughout the country – and has resulted in support for National declining 2.5% to 28% – its lowest level of support since Christopher Luxon became the leader of the party in November 2021.
“Support for the National-led Government has now plunged by over 10% points in the last two months and trails the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 50.5% – up 2.5% points in a month and up 9.5% points since September 2024.
“The big increase in support in November was for the Maori Party which is leading the opposition to the proposed changes to the ‘Treaty of Waitangi’ – up 4% points to 9%. Support amongst men increased significantly as the issue took centre stage in the media, up 9.5% in a month to 10.5%. Almost as many women, 7.5%, also support the Maori Party.
“As well as widespread protests around the country there was a highly publicised protest in the New Zealand Parliament led by Maori Party MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke. Ms. Maipi-Clarke is the youngest MP in Parliament at only 22 years of ago and led a haka protest against the proposed changes to the Treaty of Waitangi in mid-November.
“The protest included a symbolic ripping up of the proposed bill before Ms. Maipi-Clarke led a performance of a haka dance on the floor of Parliament – soon joined by other members of the Parliamentary opposition and by spectators in the public gallery.
“Ms. Maipi-Clarke was subsequently expelled from Parliament for a day and the Parliamentary session suspended. The protest received significant global media attention and the results of this month’s poll shows support for the Maori Party has increased significantly in November.
“The attention paid to the contentious Treaty of Waitangi changes has overshadowed positive results on the economy that would normally favour the Government. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut interest rates from 5.5% in early August to 4.25% in November – and this has powered increases in key measures of confidence.
“Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased 18 points to 104 – the first time more New Zealanders say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ instead of the ‘wrong direction’ since January 2022 nearly three years ago.
“In addition, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence, the measure of consumer’s economic sentiment, increased 8.6 points to 99.8 – its highest since September 2021. However, neither of these improvements in community confidence has helped the National-led Government in November which has continued to lose support.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
