Support for National-led Government down in January although support for National increases
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for January 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 50% (down 1.5% points) and clearly ahead of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 46.5% (up 1.5% points).
There were changes in the composition of support for the National-led Government with National up 1.5% points to 32.5% but support for ACT dropped 4% points to 9%. Support for NZ First increased 1% point to 8.5%, its highest level of support since the 2023 New Zealand Election.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 2.5% points to 28.5% but support for the Greens dropped 2% points to 11.5%. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens since the 2023 New Zealand Election. Support for the Maori Party increased 1% point to 6.5%.
A further 3.5% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 1.5% (up 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 2% (down 0.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win 62 seats compared to 58 seats for Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The survey results for January would lead to 62 seats (down six seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 58 seats (up three seats) being won by the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 40 seats (down nine seats), support for ACT would equal 11 seats (unchanged) and NZ First would win 11 seats (up three seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 36 seats (up two seats), Greens support would mean 14 seats (down one seat) and the Maori Party would win eight seats (up two seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 885 electors from January 2 – 26, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 1.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 6.5pts to 89 in January
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 6.5pts to 89 in January with a plurality of 48.5% (down 4% points) of electors saying New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 37.5% (up 2.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand dropped 4.2pts to 96.0 and clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 88.5 on January 27- February 2, 2025.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis men clearly favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 64% with almost double the support of the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 34% - a gap of 30% points.
In a striking contrast, on an overall basis women remain heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 58.5% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 36.5% - a gap of 22% points.
Support for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition is highest amongst older men aged 50+ at 75.5%, incredibly, this is well over 50% points ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 22%. Support for all three governing parties including National (43.5%), ACT (15%) and NZ First (17%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 are also marginally in support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 51.5% compared to 46.5% who support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Younger women aged 18-49 heavily favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 64%, more than double the support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on only 29.5%. Support for the Greens (20%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are more narrowly in favour of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 52.5% compared to 44.5% in support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 44.5. Support for the main Opposition Labour Party, at 42.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender or age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Jan. 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 32.5 | 25.5 | 19.5 | 32 | 40 | 36 | 43.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 15 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 12 | 6.5 | 17 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 50 | 36.5 | 29.5 | 44.5 | 64 | 51.5 | 75.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 28.5 | 38 | 34.5 | 42.5 | 18.5 | 22.5 | 14.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 11.5 | 13.5 | 20 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 14.5 | 5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 6.5 | 7 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 9.5 | 2.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 46.5 | 58.5 | 64 | 52.5 | 34 | 46.5 | 22 |
| Others | 5.6 | 3.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 37.5 | 29.5 | 22 | 38 | 46 | 48.5 | 43 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 48.5 | 58 | 62.5 | 53.5 | 38.5 | 36.5 | 41 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 89 | 71.5 | 59.5 | 84.5 | 107.5 | 112 | 102 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 14 | 12.5 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 15.5 | 15 | 16 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for men, but well below 100 for women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 6.5pts to 89 in January 2025.
A plurality of men, 46% (up 4.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 38.5% (down 4.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating in positive territory at 107.5 (up 9pts).
The increase in Government Confidence for men in January was driven by increases in confidence by men of all ages. Government Confidence for younger men aged 18-49 increased 6.5pts to 112 – and again clearly the highest Government Confidence Rating of any gender and age group analysed. There was also an increase for older men aged 50+, up 12.5pts to 102.
Among women overall now a clear majority of 58% (down 3% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 29.5% (up 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 71.5 (up 3.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped 6pts to only 59.5 – still the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while for women aged 50+ the Government Confidence Rating increased 14pts to 84.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led governing coalition has maintained a clear lead over the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party in the first Roy Morgan New Zealand poll of 2025:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition softened in January, down 1.5% points to 50% and clearly ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 46.5%, up 1.5% points.
“Support for National increased 1.5% points to 32.5%, however support for ACT dropped 4% points to 9%. Importantly, support for NZ First increased 1% point to 8.5% to its highest level of support since the last New Zealand Election in October 2023.
“Support for the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party increased in January, up 1.5% points to 46.5%. This increase was driven by a rise in support for Labour, up 2.5% points to 28.5% and a lift in support for the Maori Party, up 1% point to 6.5%. However, support for the Greens was down, dropping 2% points to 11.5%. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens since the last New Zealand Election in late 2023.
“The breakdowns by gender and age continue show a clear split in support with men heavily supporting the National-led governing coalition and women lining up to support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition.
“Overall, 64% of men support the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition compared to 34% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a gap of 30% points. In contrast, 58.5% of women support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party compared to 36.5% support the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition – a gap of 22% points. This is an overall gender gap of 52% points.
“This gap is especially pronounced between older men aged 50+ and younger women aged 18-49 who clearly have very different political views.
“A super majority of 75.5% of older men aged 50+ support the National-led governing coalition compared to only 22% who support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition – a massive gap 53.5% points. Support for all three governing parties including National (43.5%), NZ First (17%) and ACT (15%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
“In contrast, a large majority of 64.5% of younger women aged 18-49 support the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition compared to only 29% who support the National-led governing coalition – a gap of 34.5% points. This creates an overall gap between these two groups of a massive 88% points.
“There is a similar gap when it comes to the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which measures whether electors believe the country is going in the ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ direction.
“Amongst men there is general consensus that the country is going in the ‘right direction’ with an overall Government Confidence Rating of 107.5 for men. This includes a Government Confidence Rating for young men aged 18-49 of 112 and for older men aged 50+ of 102.
“In contrast, women are convinced the country is going in the ‘wrong direction’ with an overall Government Confidence Rating of only 71.5 for women. This includes a Government Confidence Rating for young women aged 18-49 of only 59.5 and 84.5 for older women aged 50+.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
