NZ: In March both the National-led Government and Labour-led Parliamentary opposition were under 50% support

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for March 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 47% (down 0.5% points) and the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 47.5% (unchanged) with both failing to muster a majority of support.

This is the third straight month the two main blocks representing both sides of politics have fallen short of a majority of support. This is also the sixth straight month no single party has managed to garner a third of the electorate’s support.

There were changes in the composition of support for the National-led Government with National up 2% points to 32.5% and NZ First up 1% point to 7%. However, coalition partner ACT lost support, down 3.5% points to 7.5%, dropping to its lowest level of support for over a year since January 2024.

For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour dropped 1.5% points to 27.5% and support for the Greens was down 1% point to 14.5%. In contrast, support for the Maori Party rebounded 2.5% points to 5.5%.

A further 5.5% (up 0.5%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 4% (up 1.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 1.5% (down 1% point) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.

National/ ACT/ NZ First and Labour/ Greens/ Maori would both win 60 seats on current support

The survey results for March would lead to 60 seats (down eight seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition and level with the 60 seats (up five seats) being won by the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.

For the governing coalition National’s support would win 41 seats (down eight seats), support for ACT would equal 10 seats (down one seat) and NZ First would win nine seats (up one seat).

For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 35 seats (up one seat), Greens support would mean 18 seats (up three seats) and the Maori Party would win seven seats (up one seat).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 888 electors from February 24 – March 23, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 2% points) did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 10pts to 80 in March

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 10pts to 80 in March – the lowest Government Confidence Rating since Prime Minister Luxon came to power in late November 2023 over a year ago.

Now a majority of 52.5% (up 3.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 32.5% (down 6.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 3.4pts to 93.2 in March and is about 8 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 85.3 on March 24 – 30, 2025.

Men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First by 20%; while women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori by 20%

The ‘gender split’ continues in March with a majority of 56.5% of men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 36.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.

In a striking contrast, on an overall basis women remain heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 58% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 38%.

Support for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition is highest amongst older men aged 50+ at 59% compared to 39% for the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for National (39%) and NZ First (10.5%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.

Younger men aged 18-49 are also similarly in support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 54% compared to 34% who support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for ACT (10.5%) is higher among this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.

Younger women aged 18-49 drive the support for the Opposition and heavily favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 66.5%, more than double the support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on only 27%. Support for Labour (38%), the Greens (17%) and the Maori Party (11.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.

In contrast, older women aged 50+ are split down the middle and narrowly in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 50% just ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 49% - unchanged in an overall sense from a month ago. The combined support for the two major parties, National (36.5%) and Labour (31%) at a total of 67.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Government Confidence Rating is highest for older men, but lowest for younger women

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped significantly in March 2025, down 10pts to 80 and now at its lowest since Christopher Luxon became Prime Minister in November 2023.

A plurality of men, 44.5% (down 1% point) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 36% (down 8% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating marginally in negative territory at 92 (down 7pts).

The drop in Government Confidence for men in March was driven by a sharp decrease in confidence for younger men aged 18-49, down 14.5pts to 86.5. In contrast, Government Confidence for older men aged 50+ increased in March, up 4pts to 99.5 – and now clearly the highest of any gender and age group analysed.

Among women overall now a clear majority of 60% (up 8% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just 28% (down 6% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 68 (down 14pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 slumped 22.5 points to 61.5 and now the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ dropped 5.5 points to 75.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the two sides of politics are again locked together in March indicating the neither the National-led Government or the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition has majority support in the country for third straight month:

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