ALP in front but two-party preferred lead cut significantly as early voting favours the Coalition: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%
If a Federal Election were held last weekend the ALP would have been returned to Government with a slightly increased majority with the ALP on 53% (up 0.9% from the 2022 Federal Election) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 47% (down 0.9%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This result represents a two-party preferred swing of 2.5% to the L-NP Coalition compared to a week ago.
Despite the large two-party preferred swing, the primary support for the major parties was little changed on a week ago with the Coalition on 34.5% (up 0.5%) now just ahead of the ALP on 34% (down 0.5%).
This week primary support for the Greens dropped 1.5% to 13% while support for One Nation increased 1.5% to 7.5%. This is not a ‘direct transfer’ of voting intention but rather indicates movement between the two major parties and the two key minor parties of the ‘left’ (Greens) and the ‘right’ (One Nation).
A further 11% of electors are opting to support other minor parties and independents, unchanged on a week ago. Within that bloc of support the largest support is for so-called ‘Teal Independents’ (2%) and Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ (1.5%). These results take into account that minor parties and independents are not running in every seat.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 4.5 points to 81.5 this week and remains well below the neutral level of 100. Now 52.5% (up 4.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 34% (unchanged) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The first week of early voting has seen the Coalition reduce the Albanese Government’s two-party preferred lead, but Labor is still favoured to win this week’s Federal Election: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.
“This result represents a swing to the ALP of around 1% since the 2022 Federal Election and if the swing is consistent across the nation would result in a slightly increased majority in the House of Representatives if repeated on Saturday.
“However, around 2.4 million Australians voted last week (representing over 13% of the total enrolment) and an analysis of early voters shows the Coalition performing better among those who had already voted. These trends suggest the final result could be closer than this poll suggests as we approach election day and we could still be facing a potential minority Government if the ALP fail to gain a majority.
“Roy Morgan will be continuing to interview Australian electors throughout this week and will report a final pre-election poll later this week to take account of any late swings in voter sentiment over the next few days, and following last night’s final pre-election Leaders’ Debate between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton on Channel Seven.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,524 Australian electors from April 21-27, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (unchanged) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result produced is more in favour of the ALP on 54% (down 1.5% from a week ago) leading the Coalition on 46% (up 1.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
