ALP increases election-winning two-party preferred lead to 55.5% cf. 44.5% L-NP as early voting has now started
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 55.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 44.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at an 18-month high of 86 – although still below the neutral level of 100. Now 48% (down 0.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to 34% (down 0.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
This was the first week in which all candidates for the Federal Election were known and support for both major parties increased at the expense of Independents and Other Parties. Primary support for the ALP increased 2.5% to 34.5% and is now just ahead of the Coalition on 34%, up 0.5%.
Support for the Greens was unchanged at a six-month high of 14.5% (helping boost the Albanese Government’s two-party preferred result) and support for One Nation was unchanged at 6%.
As indicated, the declaration of candidates meant a drop in support for Independents, down 2.5% to 7.5% with Independent candidates not running in all 150 seats. There was also a slight decline in support for Other Parties, down 0.5% to 3.5%, with many minor parties running in only a handful of seats.
For instance, support for Clive Palmer’s new ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ Party was at 0.5% this week, down 0.5% from a week ago. Trumpet of Patriots is running in only two-thirds of available seats (100/150).
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Albanese Government has won all three weeks of the Federal Election so far – increasing its two-party preferred lead every week since the election was called in late March: ALP 55.5% (up 1%) cf. L-NP Coalition 45.5% (down 1%).
“Early voting has started this week and millions of Australians are expected to cast their ballot before Federal Election day on May 3, so any new policies released now will be too late for some voters who have already made up their mind.
“Over the last few days there were horrific crimes related to drugs and domestic violence committed in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria that led to people being killed with people shot and killed in all three States over the Easter weekend – and a concerned public.
“The impact of crime on a Federal Election is hard to judge given the issue is primarily a state-based issue, but Liberal Leader Peter Dutton’s image as a former policeman who has dealt with crimes relating to drugs and domestic violence gives the Coalition the opportunity to highlight the issue and boost their support in the next two weeks as voters make up their minds.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,605 Australian electors from April 14-20, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (unchanged) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result produced is identical with the ALP on 55.5% (up 1% from a week ago) leading the Coalition on 44.5% (down 1%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
