ALP maintains an election-winning lead, but no ‘Budget Bounce’ for Albanese Government: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 53% (unchanged from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 47% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 80.5 with only 32% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 51.5% (down 1%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
This week primary support for both major parties decreased with the Coalition down 0.5% to 35% and the ALP down 1.5% to 32% after the Albanese Government delivered its pre-election Federal Budget, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton delivered the Opposition’s response, and the Federal Election was called.
Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13% and support for One Nation was up 1.5% to 5.5%. Support for Other Parties dropped 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 10.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“There are under five weeks until election day and currently the Albanese Government is on course for re-election and have led on a two-party preferred basis for the last four weeks.
“Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered a pre-election Federal Budget last week which included extensions to existing energy bill rebates and a modest income tax cut for almost all employed Australians of around $250 next year and about $500 the year after – or about $5 per week over the next three years.
“Opposition Leader Peter Dutton laid out the Coalition’s response on Thursday night and countered the income tax cut with a more immediate cut to the petrol excise of 25 cents per litre beginning immediately after being elected – although the cut would be short-term for only 12 months.
“Clearly both initiatives are aimed at addressing widespread concern about ‘cost of living’ and high inflation – and the Roy Morgan Poll shows neither resonated with voters – primary support for both major parties went backwards in the opening days of the election campaign.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,377 Australian electors from March 24-30, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 2% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is slightly more in favour of the Albanese Government with the ALP on 53.5% (down 0.5%) leading the Coalition on 46.5% (up 0.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
