ALP regained a narrow lead over the Coalition as Cyclone Alfred threatened the coastline: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the ALP on 51.5% (up 2%) narrowly ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 48.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The ALP, or the L-NP Coalition, would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds, although the ALP would be favoured.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 2 points to 81.5 with 33% (up 1.5%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 51.5% (down 0.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
The Coalition primary vote lead was significantly reduced this week with L-NP support down 3% to 37% while ALP support increased 1.5% to 30%. Once again, support for the Greens was unchanged at 13.5%.
Support for One Nation increased 1% to 5%, support for Other Parties increased 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents was unchanged at 10.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“There was a clear swing to the Albanese Government this week as Australians faced several important issues. The long wait for Cyclone Alfred to make landfall was pushed back several days last week, extending the emergency and causing a big hassle for millions of Australians in the impacted areas of South-East Queensland and Northern New South Wales.
“As well as an unprecedented natural disaster, there were issues of national security at the forefront of the news. Most prominently these were the circumnavigation of Australia by a flotilla of Chinese warships, and the continuing unrest in Ukraine – with Prime Minister Albanese allowing for the possibility of Australian peacekeepers to be sent and the Opposition Leader ruling it out.
“There are also increasing concerns about the uncertainty created in the global economy by President Trump’s ‘flip-flopping’ on imposing tariffs, and on the home front there was a State Election in Western Australia easily won by Labor.
“Often in times of international unrest and uncertainty, and natural disasters, there is a rise in support for the incumbent Government – and this was a clear factor during the early days of the COVID pandemic. This week there were significant swings to the Albanese Government in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania that drove the overall result in favour of the ALP.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,719 Australian electors from March 3-9, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (unchanged from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is further in favour of the Albanese Government with the ALP on 52% (up 2%) leading the Coalition on 48% (down 2%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
