Coalition regains narrow lead after ‘Reserve Bank boost’ proves short-lived: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the L-NP Coalition on 50.5% (up 1.5%) narrowly ahead of the ALP on 49.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The L-NP Coalition, or the ALP, would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This latest weekly poll has not completely reversed the ‘Reserve Bank boost’ but has definitely shown the ‘boost’ to Labor has been significantly softened.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell 5.5 points to 79.5 with only 31.5% (down 3%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 52% (up 2.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
The Coalition stretched their primary vote lead to over 10% with L-NP support increasing 3.5% to 40%. In contrast, support for the ALP dropped 3% to 28.5%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 13.5%.
Support for One Nation dropped 1% to 4%, support for Other Parties was unchanged at 3.5% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 10.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates in mid-February provided a definite ‘boost’ in support for the Albanese Government. However, in last week’s Roy Morgan Update video (Feb. 25, 2025) we questioned whether that rise in support would be sustained. It clearly hasn’t been.
“The Reserve Bank’s statement accompanying the decision to cut interest rates made it clear the Bank doesn’t expect another interest rate cut in the near future, and this has clearly disappointed mortgage holders hoping for significant cuts in the next few months.
“Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is widely expected to call an election later this week for Saturday April 12. Between now and then there is one more Reserve Bank board meeting set down for the week prior to that date on Tuesday April 1.
“A look at the Roy Morgan survey results from the last two weeks shows that an interest rate cut can provide an immediate ‘sugar hit’, or quick jump in support for the governing party. However, if there is nothing to quickly follow-up the ‘boost’ is likely to prove short-lived.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,673 Australian electors from February 24 – March 2, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (down 2% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is dead-locked with the ALP on 50% (down 3%) level with the Coalition on 50% (up 3%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
