ALP takes lead on two-party preferred after Reserve Bank cuts interest rates: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the ALP on 51% (up 2.5%) just ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 49% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The ALP, or L-NP Coalition, would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 5 points to 85 with 34.5% (up 2%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 49.5% (down 3%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Despite still being well below the neutral level of 100, this is the highest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating for over a year since January 2024.
The ALP gained significant ground on primary support this week, up 3.5% to 31.5% while the Coalition was down 3% to 36.5%. Support for the Greens increased 1% to 13.5%.
Support for One Nation dropped 0.5% to 5%, support for Other Parties dropped 1% to 3.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 10%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“There was a significant move to the Albanese Government this week following the Reserve Bank’s first interest rate cut in over four years. The RBA cut official interest rates from 4.35% to 4.1% and many Australians with a large mortgage will be expecting further interest rate cuts to come.
“The interest rate cuts also provided a boost to Roy Morgan Government Confidence, up 5 points to 85 and at its highest for over a year since January 2024. Despite the improvement, more Australians (49.5%) say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ than the ‘right direction’ (34.5%).
“As well as the good news on the local economic front, the big news last week was US President Donald Trump attacking on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump claims he is the only leader serious about a peace deal in Ukraine and will do what it takes to get it done.
“However, the attacks on Zelensky have introduced new uncertainty into the international political realm and throughout many decades of the Roy Morgan Poll we see that periods of geopolitical unrest always favour the incumbent party power.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,666 Australian electors from February 17-23, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 7.5% (down 0.5% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result moves further in favour of the Albanese Government and shows the ALP on 53% (up 4%) ahead of the Coalition on 47% (down 4%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
