Federal vote unchanged: Coalition 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the Coalition on 51.5% (unchanged) just ahead of the ALP on 48.5% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis.
The Coalition or ALP would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This week primary support for both major parties decreased with the Coalition down 1% to 39.5% and the ALP down 1% to 28%. Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 12.5%.
Support for One Nation increased 1.5% to 5.5%, support for Other Parties dropped 1.5% to 4.5% and support for Independents increased 0.5% to 10%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,666 Australian electors from February 10-16, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 8% (down 1.5% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result shows an almost identical result in favour of the Coalition on 51% (down 0.5%) just ahead of the ALP on 49% (up 0.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
