ALP increases two-party preferred lead after Cyclone Alfred and President Trump puts tariffs on Australia: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 54.5% (up 3%) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This is the ALP’s largest lead in the Roy Morgan survey for over 18 months since August 2023.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 3 points to 84.5 with 35% (up 2%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 50.5% (down 1%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
The Coalition primary vote lead was significantly reduced this week with L-NP support down 3% to 34% while ALP support increased 2.5% to 32.5% and support for the Greens was unchanged at 13.5%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 5%, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 10.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The latest Roy Morgan survey shows the Albanese Government gaining ground for a second straight week. Cyclone Alfred caused extensive disruption to millions of Australians in the last two weeks, but it has not hurt the Government’s standing – which has improved during this period.
“For the first time in over nine months the Albanese Government has a two-party preferred lead that would deliver the party a clear majority in Parliament – if this support holds up until the election.
“Opposition Leader Peter Dutton made a rare misstep two weeks ago when the Coalition asserted an L-NP Government would end working from home arrangements and force public servants to return to the office five days a week. Although Dutton has walked this pledge back in recent days, it appears to have done significant damage to the Coalition’s broader support.
“Compared to two weeks ago Coalition primary support is down 6% to 34% – its lowest since October 2023. Labor support is up 4% to 32.5% while support for One Nation and Other Parties has increased over the last two weeks while support for the Greens and Independents is unchanged.
“As well as the ‘gaffe’ regarding working from home – which millions of Australians are now familiar and comfortable with, the uncertain global environment with continuing unrest in Ukraine and the new tariffs on Australian exports announced by US President Donald Trump are also factors playing against the Opposition Leader.
“The Albanese Government has consistently attempted to associate Dutton with President Trump and Trump’s more controversial policies and rhetoric. This campaign may be starting to have an impact as Trump’s actions, including imposing tariffs, begin to directly impact Australians.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 2,097 Australian electors from March 10-16, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is is the same with the ALP on 54.5% (up 2.5%) leading the Coalition on 45.5% (down 2.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
