ALP holds election winning lead pre-Budget despite small swing to Coalition this week: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 53% (down 1.5% from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 47% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 4.5 points to 80 with only 32.5% (down 2.5%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 52.5% (up 2%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
This week primary support for both major parties increased with the Coalition up 1.5% to 35.5% and the ALP up 1% to 33.5% - the highest ALP primary support for a year since March 2024.
Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 12.5% and support for One Nation was down 1% to 4%. Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4.5% and support for Independents was down 0.5% to 10%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The latest Roy Morgan survey shows a small 1.5% two-party preferred swing to the Coalition, gaining back some of the ground lost over the previous fortnight. Three weeks ago the Coalition had its nose ahead (L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%) but now the Albanese Government maintains an election winning lead ahead of the Liberal-National parties: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.
“Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ is set to hand down a pre-election Federal Budget tomorrow which is expected to show a series of budget deficits extending over the forward estimates. However, there are also set to be significant handouts to businesses and householders – including extensions of existing energy bill rebates throughout the rest of the year.
“The Albanese Government will be hoping a well-received Federal Budget can serve as a launching pad for a successful re-election campaign while the Coalition’s right of reply to the Federal Budget, set for Thursday, will give voters a better understanding of where the Opposition party stands on the key issues such as cost of living.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,683 Australian electors from March 17-23, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 7% (up 2% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is the same with the ALP on 54% (down 0.5%) leading the Coalition on 46% (up 0.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
