ALP increases election-winning lead as President Trump announces ‘Liberation Day’ and imposes worldwide tariffs
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 53.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 46.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at 81 with only 33% (up 1%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 52% (up 0.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
This week primary support for the ALP increased at the expense of the Coalition with support for the ALP up 0.5% to 32.5% while Coalition support dropped 2% to 33% - this is the closest the two parties have been on primary vote support since mid-October 2023.
Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13.5%, One Nation was up 0.5% to 6%, support for Other Parties increased 2% to 6% (Note: Clive Palmer’s new Trump of Patriots party received 1.5% support – its best result so far), while support for Independents dropped 1.5% to 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Albanese Government has strengthened its lead over the Coalition with under four weeks until election day. The Roy Morgan survey in the first week of March was the first poll to pick up the shift in support towards the ALP and away from the Coalition – and this trend has continued to build over the last month.
“The ALP has now led in five straight Roy Morgan surveys since early March and has clearly won the first week of the campaign launched following the delivery of the Federal Budget.
“The Coalition’s ‘political mistakes’ were on display in recent days such as Dutton announcing his main residence would be at Kirribilli House in Sydney and followed by today Opposition Leader Peter Dutton ditched his controversial policy to force Commonwealth public servants back to the office and walked back a commitment to slash 40,000 public service jobs to cut spending.
“The Government’s attempt to tie Peter Dutton closely to US President Donald Trump also appears to be working. President Trump’s decision to impose world-wide tariffs – including 10% on Australian exports to the US – has created a very negative reaction amongst many Australians, and to the extent Dutton is associated with Trump, this is a clear negative for the Coalition.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,481 Australian electors from March 31 – April 4, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (unchanged from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is slightly more in favour of the Albanese Government with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1%) leading the Coalition on 45.5% (down 1%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
