ALP increases election-winning two-party preferred lead to 54.5% cf. 45.5% L-NP – as President Donald Trump sparks market upheaval and Coalition ‘backflips’ on Federal Public Servants working from home
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 45.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
In a good sign for the Albanese Government, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 5 points to 86 – its highest for over 18 months since September 2023. Now 34.5% (up 1.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 48.5% (down 4.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.
This week primary support for the two major parties was little changed with the Coalition up 0.5% to 33.5% and the ALP down 0.5% to 32%. Importantly for the Government, support for the Greens increased 1% to 14.5% (the Greens highest support for over six months).
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 6%, Other Parties dropped 2% to 4% (Note: Clive Palmer’s new ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ Party received 1% support, down 0.5% from a week ago), while support for Independents increased 1% to 10%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The first two weeks of the Federal Election campaign have favoured the Albanese Government which strengthened its two-party preferred lead for a second consecutive week: ALP 54.5% (up 1%) cf. L-NP Coalition 45.5% (down 1%).
“President Donald Trump’s worldwide tariffs caused extreme market upheaval throughout last week. The ASX200 plunged early in the week before recovering most of its losses by the end of the week, and the Australian Dollar was on a roller-coaster ride.
“In times of uncertainty we usually see voters swing towards incumbent governments – and this reaction has been seen in recent weeks with increasing support for the Albanese Government – at least at a two-party preferred level.
“In primary vote terms the Greens are the standout this week with support at 14.5% – a six-month high, while Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ Party has yet to gain traction and slipped back 0.5% to only 1% support – despite spending millions of dollars on every type of advertising.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,708 Australian electors from April 7-13, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 1% point from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result produced is similar and unchanged from a week ago with the ALP on 54.5% (unchanged) leading the Coalition on 45.5% (unchanged).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
