Coalition strengthens two-party lead L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%
If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win, with a two-party preferred (2PP) vote of 53% (up 1% since Christmas) compared to the ALP on 47% (down 1%).
In interesting turn of events, the shift away from the ALP to L-NP on a two-party preferred basis came directly from the Green preferences. The Greens preferences shifted from 85% ALP before Christmas to only 55% ALP this week.
Primary support for the Coalition dropped slightly, (down 0.5% to 40.5%), ALP primary vote increased by 3.5% to 31%. The Greens saw their primary support fall by 0.5% to 12%. Support for One Nation dropped significantly, down 1.5% to 3.5%, support for Other Parties was unchanged at 3.5%, and Independents fell 1% to 9.5%.
Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) increased 2.7 points to 74.2, well below the neutral level of 100, because a majority of Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction (56%, down 1.3%), while 30.2% (up 1.3%) say the country is going in the right direction.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Coalition’s two party preferred vote has risen to its highest level since the last Federal Election, driven by a dramatic swing to the Coalition in Victoria following the leadership spill, and a major shift in Green preferences.
Most Australians (56%) still believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, though those thinking it’s heading in the right direction increased slightly to 30.2% (up 1.3%).”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,446 Australian electors from December 30 to January 5, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% (up 0.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
Australia heading In “Right” or “Wrong” Direction Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Andrew Calvert-Jones on (03) 9224 5365 or email andrewcj@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
