ALP support up as King Charles & Queen Camilla visit Australia for the first time
If a Federal Election were held now the Labor Party would be returned to government with the ALP 52% (up 2% points from a week ago) narrowly ahead of the Coalition 48% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows the ALP support matching its support at the last Federal Election held in May 2022 at which the party secured 77 seats in the 151 seat Parliament – a majority of one seat on the floor of Parliament (76/150 seats) after nominating a Speaker.
ALP primary vote support increased 2% to 32% while Coalition support was down 1% to 36.5%, support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5% and One Nation support dropped 0.5% to 5.5%.
Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 3.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
”The latest Federal voting intention shows the Albanese Government gaining a two-party preferred edge over the Coalition – the ALP’s largest lead since mid-June with the commencement of the first Royal visit to Australia by King Charles and Queen Camilla.
“When King Charles ascended to the throne two years ago a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll showed a resounding majority of 60% of Australian supported Australia remaining as a Monarchy – including a majority of 58% of ALP voters.
“In addition, Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar was killed last week. Sinwar was the apparent ‘mastermind’ of the October 7 terrorist attacks a year ago which sparked the current conflict. Sinwar’s death was widely welcomed (including by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese) as it potentially opens the door to the release of the Israeli hostages and a potential end to the devastating war.
“Looking at a State level, the ALP gained ground in Queensland – which is set for a tighter State Election this weekend than many expected as the ALP closes the gap. Support for the ALP was also up in NSW which held three by-elections on the weekend – one of which the Liberal Party lost to a ‘Teal Independent’ – a concerning sign for the Opposition heading towards another Federal election.
“There were also swings to the ALP in Western Australia and South Australia which helped boost support for the Albanese Government nationally.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,687 Australian electors from October 14-20, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 7.5% (up 1.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is even further in favour of the ALP on 53% (up 2% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP 47% (down 2% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
