ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.9pts to 83.0 as buying sentiment drops to lowest for a month
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 0.9pts to 83.0 this week. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 81 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 7.2 points above the same week a year ago, August 14-20, 2023 (75.8), and is now 2.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.9.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the index decreasing in most States including New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but up slightly in Queensland.
The driver of this week’s decrease was a fall in confidence about buying conditions – falling to its lowest for over a month.
Current financial conditions
- Now nearly a quarter of Australians, 23% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 47% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year were virtually unchanged this week with nearly a third of respondents, 32% (unchanged) of Australians expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year equal to the 32% (down 1ppt), are expecting to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
- Fewer than one-in-ten Australians, 8% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to a third, 33% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with only 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a sixth, 18% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Buying intentions dropped to their lowest in a month, only a fifth of Australians, 20% (down 4ppts) saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to a large plurality of 49% (up 2ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence eased 0.9pts last week, driven by a 6.0pt fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex. The current financial situation subindex also declined 1.9pts, but it is still up 5.2pts over the past two weeks and 9.6pts compared to the start of July. Despite some volatility in the week-to-week data, it appears the Stage 3 tax cuts are supporting confidence.
Notably, inflation expectations fell to 4.7%, their lowest level since January 2022, before inflation picked up materially in Australia. It’s been a bumpy path down for inflation expectations since the peak of 6.8% in November 2022, and that bumpiness has been evident in other measures like the NAB business survey’s price measures. The NAB measures are now consistent with inflation sitting around 2.5%. We’ll be watching to see if inflation expectations continue to moderate over the coming weeks.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
