ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eases 1.3pts to 83.1 in late July due to concerns about the Australian economy after biggest weekly jump in over three years
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eased 1.3pts to 83.1 this week after last week’s big weekly jump – the largest in over three years since mid-April 2021. Looking longer-term the index has now spent a record 78 straight weeks (equivalent to 18 months) below the mark of 85.
Consumer Confidence is a now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago, July 24-30, 2023 (78.4), and is now 1.3 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.8.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows there were decreases in most States including New South Wales, Queensland, and South Australia, the index was unchanged in Victoria and went against the trend with an increase in Western Australia.
There was little movement on the index this week with the only question moving decisively was the question dealing with the Australian economy’s performance over the next year which dipped significantly and gave up most of last week’s gains.
Current financial conditions
- Now just over a fifth of Australians, 21% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 49% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year have remained in positive territory for a second straight week, with almost a third of Australians, 32% (down 1ppt) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while only 31% (down 1ppt) are expecting to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
- However, now fewer than one-in-ten Australians, 9% (down 3ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over a third, 35% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was relatively unchanged this week with 12% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to almost a fifth, 19% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Buying intentions were virtually unchanged this week with just over a fifth of Australians, 23% (unchanged) saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to a large plurality of 48% (up 1ppt) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
Despite a small drop last week, ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence is up 4.6pts over the past fortnight. The fact that consumer confidence held onto most of last week’s sizeable 5.9pt gain suggests households may be seeing the benefits of the Stage 3 tax cuts. Particularly as the biggest improvement has been in households’ confidence in their own financial situation. Relative to two weeks ago, households’ confidence in their current financial position has risen 5.1pts, while confidence in their financial position in a year’s time is up 5.8pts. Over this period, confidence has increased most for those who own their homes outright (+6.8pts), followed by renters (+3.1pts) and those paying off a mortgage (+1.6pts).
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
