ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 5.9pts to 84.4 after Stage 3 tax cuts hit the bulk of consumer’s pockets; highest consumer confidence since January 2024
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has jumped 5.9pts to 84.4 this week – the largest weekly jump for over three years since mid-April 2021, after Easter that year, when the index jumped 6.4pts.
However, despite the significant jump, the index has now spent a record 77 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is a large 9.2 points above the same week a year ago, July 17-23, 2023 (75.2), and is now 2.7 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.7.
This is the highest weekly Consumer Confidence reading for six months since mid-January 2024 and came after the vast majority of income taxpayers have now received a significant income tax cut.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows there were increases in most States led by a large rise in Queensland, up strongly in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, although there was a dip against the trend in Western Australia.
There was positive movement across the index this week with all five questions moving in a positive direction and contributing to the weekly increase.
Current financial conditions
- Now over a fifth of Australians, 22% (up 2ppts), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 49% (down 4ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year returned to positive territory this week, with a third of Australians, 33% (up 3ppts) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while only 32% (down 3ppts) are expecting to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
- Now 12% (up 4ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to a third, 33% (down 4ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term recovered from a yearly low this week with 13% (up 3ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to a fifth, 20% (down 2ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Buying intentions were improved this week with just over a fifth of Australians, 23% (up 3ppts) saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to a large plurality of 47% (down 2ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recorded its largest weekly rise since April 2021, jumping 5.9pts to hit a six-month high. The improvement in confidence was broad-based, with each of the subindices increasing by at least 5pts. Notably, households’ confidence in their current financial situation was the second highest since early-2023. This suggests households may be starting to see a boost to their incomes from the Stage 3 tax cuts and other cost-of-living relief measures. The next few weeks will be important in determining whether this is the start of a sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
