ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 81.3 before the RBA meeting in early August
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1.8pts to 81.3 this week before the Reserve Bank meets for a highly anticipated meeting on Australian interest rates. After last week’s ABS inflation numbers for the June Quarter 2024 were in line with forecasts the widely held expectation is that the RBA will increase interest rates this week.
Looking longer-term the index has now spent a record 79 straight weeks (equivalent to 18 months) below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3 points above the same week a year ago, July 31 – August 6, 2023 (75.0), and is now 0.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.8.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows there were mixed results by State with small increases in New South Wales and Victoria, virtually unchanged in South Australia and significant decreases in Queensland and Western Australia.
The driver of this week’s decline was decreasing confidence about personal finances – especially as it relates to the year ahead while views on the long-term health of the economy also declined.
Current financial conditions
- Now just over a fifth of Australians, 21% (unchanged), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 51% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year have dropped into negative territory this week with only 30% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while over a third, 34% (up 3ppts), are expecting to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
- Fewer than one-in-ten Australians, 8% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over a third, 34% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was down this week with only 10% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to a fifth, 20% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- Buying intentions were virtually unchanged this week with just over a fifth of Australians, 22% (down 1ppt) saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to a large plurality of 46% (down 2ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items (in somewhat better news this is the lowest figure for this indicator for over 18 months since January 2023).
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence declined for a second consecutive week, following the six-month high a fortnight ago. Weekly inflation expectations rose 0.1pts to 5.1% despite Q2 Consumer Price Index data printing largely in line with the RBA’s expectations, alleviating concerns around a potential cash rate hike. This would usually be a positive for consumer confidence. However, coverage of the heightened recession concerns in the US over the weekend may have offset this.
The positive impact of Stage 3 tax cuts appears to be waning, driven by a 4.9pt drop in households’ confidence in their own financial conditions over the next 12 months, one of the largest weekly falls for this subindex in 2024 so far. However, the boost to disposable incomes from the tax cuts may still be supporting the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex, which rose 1.3pts last week.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
