ALP increases lead Federally as the Albanese Government easily wins the Dunkley by-election
Support for the ALP has increased 3.5% to 53.5% to put the party well ahead of the Coalition on 46.5% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election was held now the Albanese Government would be returned with an increased majority the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
There was a swing to the ALP in all six States with the biggest swings in NSW and Victoria, largely reversing the result of a week ago. The swing to the ALP came after the ABS announced lower than expected inflation in January of 3.4% last week – all but removing the chance of an interest rate rise in mid-March and a definite positive for the Government.
The ALP retained the seat of Dunkley despite a swing of 3.6% to the Liberal Party. The Liberal primary vote increased 6.8% to 39.3%, however this result is below the 40.4% received by the Liberal Party, United Australia Party and One Nation at the last election.
The seat of Dunkley is diverse and swings to the ALP in suburbs such as Seaford South and Frankston South were enough to counteract swings to the Liberal Party candidate, local Mayor Nathan Conroy, in places including Mt. Eliza and Langwarrin. To win the seat the Liberals needed to secure swings across all the different areas, and it failed to do so.
Turning to the national results, primary support for Coalition was down 1.5% to 36.5% while support for the ALP recovered, up 2.5% to 34%; also helping the ALP was an increase in Greens support, up 1.5% to 13.5% and a decrease in One Nation support, down 1.5% to 3.5%. Support for Independents & Other Parties was down 1% to 12.5%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,679 Australian electors from February 26 – March 3, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
