ALP maintains an election winning lead in mid-February as parties set to contest Dunkley by-election: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%
Support for the Labor government (52.5%) is in an election winning position ahead of the L-NP (47.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, if a Federal Election were held now the Albanese government would be returned with a narrow majority the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
The result is a slight improvement on the 2022 Federal Election (ALP 52.1% cf. 47.9%) and augurs well for ALP which faces the Dunkley by-election in Victoria on the first weekend in March.
There was little movement on primary votes this week with Coalition primary support unchanged at 37% while ALP support was down marginally by 0.5% to 34%.
The Greens were up 1% to 13%, One Nation dropped 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents & Other Parties was unchanged at 12%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,706 Australian electors from February 12-18, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
