ALP support jumps back strongly (up 2.5%) after detail of Stage 3 tax cuts is revealed: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%
Labor government support jumped 2.5% to 53% well ahead of the Coalition on 47% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred according to the latest Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention.
Support for the Government rebounded strongly after the Albanese Government provided detail on its proposed changes to the long-awaited ‘Stage 3 income tax cuts’ due in mid-year. Treasury analysis shows 84% of taxpayers are set to be better off under the Albanese Government changes.
If this week’s result was repeated at a Federal Election held now the Albanese government would be returned with a comfortable majority.
ALP primary support increased 2% to 33% while Coalition support dropped 0.5% to 37%.
The Greens dropped 1% to 12% and One Nation dropped 0.5% to 5%. Support for Independents & Other Parties was unchanged at 13%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,709 Australian electors from January 29 – February 4, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
