Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention poll shows ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5% in election winning lead
Support for Labor has increased 1% to 52.5% ahead of the Coalition on 47.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred according to the latest Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention.
This week saw a confirmation of trends evident a week ago, after the ABS announced lower-than-expected inflation numbers, with ALP support increasing for a second straight week, up 1% to 32.5%, while Coalition support dropped 1% to 36%.
The Greens increased 0.5% to 12.5% and One Nation increased 0.5% to 5%. Support for Independents & Other Parties was down 1% to 14%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,675 Australian electors from January 15-21, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
