Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention poll shows L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%
The Coalition has overtaken Labor as the Cost-of-Living crisis intensifies, reaching 51% (up 1%) while ALP stands at 49% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the first Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention for 2024.
This week saw notable shifts in the primary votes of both major parties. The Coalition support increased to 39%, reflecting a 1% rise from December, while the ALP faced a significant setback with a 3% decline, leaving them at 29%.
The Greens are up 1.5% to 13% and One Nation is up 0.5% to 5%. While support for Independents & Other Parties didn’t change at 14%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,716 Australian electors from January 2-7, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Andrew Calvert-Jones on (03) 9224 5365 or email andrew.calvert-jones@roymorgan.com
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
