Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention poll shows ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% after inflation drops to two-year low of 4.3%
Support for Labor has increased 2.5% to 51.5% ahead of the Coalition on 48.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the official inflation figure dropped to a two year low according to the second Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention for 2024. The sharp fall in inflation, down 0.6% to 4.3%, means further interest rate increases in 2024 are unlikely.
This week saw a reversal of trends evident a week ago with ALP support increasing 2.5% to 31.5% while Coalition support dropped 2% to 37%.
The Greens dropped 1% to 12% and One Nation was down 0.5% to 4.5%. Support for Independents & Other Parties increased 1% to 15%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,727 Australian electors from January 8-14, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
