ALP maintains an election winning lead over the Coalition in mid-February: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%
Support for the Labor government (52%) is in an election winning position ahead of the L-NP (48%) on a two-party preferred according to the latest Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention.
This week’s result closely matches the result at the 2022 Federal Election (ALP 52.1% cf. 47.9%) and if a Federal Election were held now the Albanese government would be returned with a narrow majority. Polling trends over the last six months show that during this period, and including interviews with over 30,000 Australian voters, the average two-party preferred result is: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% - the same result as this week.
Coalition primary support was unchanged at 37% while ALP support was up 1.5% to 34.5%.
The Greens were unchanged at 12% and One Nation dropped 0.5% to 4.5%. Support for Independents & Other Parties dropped 1% to 12%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,699 Australian electors from February 5-11, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
