ALP and Coalition can’t be split Federally as parties contest Dunkley by-election: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%
Support for the ALP has dropped 2.5% to 50% and the party is now even with the L-NP 50% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now we would have a hung Parliament with minor parties and independents deciding who would be our next Government the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
There were big swings against the ALP in New South Wales and Victoria after asylum seeker boats landed in Western Australia and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton ‘hammered’ the Albanese Government all week over the failures in border protection policies. The majority of Federal Electorates are located in these two States.
There were also significant anti-Semitic protests in Sydney and Melbourne last week as well as extensive blackouts of hundreds of thousands of people in Victoria due to heavy storms throughout the State.
The swing in Victoria suggests a closer than expected by-election in the seat of Dunkley – although the ALP still leads 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% in Victoria.
Primary support for Coalition increased 1% to 38% - it’s highest for over a year, while support for the ALP dropped significantly, down 2.5% to 31.5%.
The Greens were down 1% to 12%, One Nation increased 1% to 5% and support for Independents & Other Parties was up 1.5% to 13.5%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,682 Australian electors from February 19-25, 2024.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
