ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 79.2 in May
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was basically flat in May at 79.2, an extremely low level.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a 'good time to buy' a major household item, a key retail indicator, was unchanged at 24% in May, while those saying it is a 'bad time to buy' increased 3% points to 58% leaving the net result down 3 points to -34.
- Inflation expectations eased from 5.2% to 4.8%. That’s only the second time since mid-2021 that they’ve dipped under the 5% mark.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index was flat in May, remaining very subdued.
Turning to the detail:
- Net perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 5 points from -25% to -20% with 25% of New Zealanders saying they are 'better off' financially, up 1% point from April, and 45% saying they are 'worse off' financially, down 4% points - a net result of -20.
- A net 5% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year, down 1 point from April.
- A net 34% of New Zealanders now think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, down 3 points from April.
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time lifted 7 points to -43%, still clearly in negative territory.
- The 5-year-ahead measure of perceptions regarding the economic outlook fell from -2% of New Zealanders to -12% in May, down 10 points.
- House price inflation expectations were little changed in May at 0.4%.
- They are strongest in Auckland (1.5% versus 0.3% last month).
- One-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations fell back from 5.2% to 4.8%, finally interrupting what was starting to look like an upward trend.
Consumers remain under pressure. While the labour market remains tight, conferring both a high degree of job security and strong wage growth, ongoing cost of living increases, including higher mortgage rates for the 38% of households who have a mortgage, continue to bite. Uncertainty is no doubt also taking a toll, with the RBNZ still attempting to cool the economy in order to bring inflation sustainably lower.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
