ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 9.6pts to 83.4 in January
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 9.6pts to 83.4 in January.
- New Zealand Consumer Confidence jumped 9 points in January to 83.4, more than undoing its December fall. The lift was driven by the forward-looking questions. However, the level is still far below the neutral level of 100 last reached in September 2021.
- The net proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 5 points to -28% with 25% (up 1ppt) of New Zealanders saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ a major household item compared to 53% (down 4ppts) saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
- Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.3%.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index in January bounced 9 points off its record low in December to 83.4. Just like our Business Outlook survey, some of the post-RBNZ shock appears to have worn off. However, subdued card-spending data in December suggests consumers may indeed be “cooling their jets” as instructed.
While confidence rose, it remains very low, and the softening labour market could see the long-running disconnect between consumers’ stated intentions and their actual spending decisions close.
Turning to the detail:
- Net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 3 points to -20% with 23% (down 1ppt) of New Zealanders saying they are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 43% (down 4ppts) saying they are ‘worse off’.
- A net 7% expect to be better off this time next year, up a large 17 points with over a third, 35% (up 5ppts) of New Zealanders expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to under a third, 29% (down 10ppts) expecting to be ‘worse off’.
- A net 28% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, an improvement of 5ppts from December.
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time rose 14 points to -40%. The 5-year-ahead measure rose from -12% to -1%.
- House price inflation expectations rose from -0.8% to -0.3%.
- One-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations edged up from 5.2% to 5.3% – still well below businesses’ expectations, interestingly.
- The proportion of mortgage-paying households who think it’s a good time to spend continues to be lower than renters (-33% vs -22%).
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
