ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence unchanged for third straight month at 85.4 in October 2022
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was unchanged for third straight month in October at 85.4.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item was up 1% point to 26% while those saying it’s a bad time to buy major household items dropped 2% points to 48% with the net overall figure up 3 points to -22.
- Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.0%, versus 5.1% last month. It’s very unusual for businesses’ inflation expectations to sit higher than consumer inflation expectations.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index was (again) unchanged in October at subdued levels. Households are finding sharp increases in the cost of living hard to deal with, but excellent job security and strong wage growth are helping.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations was unchanged at -18%.
- A net 4% expect to be better off this time next year, unchanged.
- A net 22% of households think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, up 3.
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time deteriorated from -32% to -39% – possibly influenced by the unexpectedly strong CPI that saw economists revise up their interest rate forecasts. The 5-year-ahead measure rose from -3% to +1%.
- House price inflation expectations remained at 0.5%. They are highest in the North Island outside of Auckland and Wellington (1.6%, previously -0.2%) and weakest in Wellington (-1.8%, previously -0.7%).
- CPI inflation expectations held up, at 5.0% versus 5.1% last month.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
