ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 3.5pts to 85.4 in August 2022
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 3.5pts to 85.4 in August.
- The net proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for retail spending, lifted 8 points to -17, its highest read since January (though still very low). A gap is emerging in this indicator between those with mortgages and those without.
- Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.0%, versus 4.9% last month.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted a little in August but remains at very subdued levels. Households are not happy about higher living costs and with interest rates rising rapidly, are understandably concerned about the economic outlook. Homeowners are seeing the value of their largest asset going backwards. However, offsetting all that to some extent, in a super-tight labour market incomes are looking secure – and are currently rising rapidly.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 9 points to -25%, a fresh low this cycle.
- A net 1% expect to be better off this time next year, little changed.
- A net 17% of households think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, up 8. This is still very low, but is well off its May trough of -30.
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time improved from -43% to -35%. The five-year-ahead measure lifted from -5% to +2%.
- House price inflation expectations were little changed at 0.9%.
- CPI inflation expectations held up, at 5% versus 4.9% last month.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
