ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 6.9pts to 73.8 in December 2022
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 6.9pts to 73.8 in December.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a ‘bad time to buy’ a major household item was up 5% points to 57% while only 24% (up 3% points) of New Zealanders, now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ a major household item – a net reading of -33 (down 2 points) – the lowest net reading since early in 2020.
- Inflation expectations dipped to 5.2%, from 5.3% last month.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 7 points in December to 73.8, its lowest level since the data began in 2004. Just like our Business Outlook survey, there appears to some post-MPS shock value in these figures. The RBNZ came out guns blazing in the November MPS, signalling further aggressive OCR hikes in 2023 and a technical recession. That’s clearly spooked the horses, but it’s not yet clear exactly how far they have bolted. All eyes are now on the degree of follow-through from businesses reporting negative employment intentions, and consumers saying they will significantly tighten their belts.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 7 points to -23%.
- A net 10% expect to be worse off this time next year, down 10 points.
- A net 33% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, the second lowest read ever recorded (lowest: -51% in April 2020).
- Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time deteriorated from -41% to -54%. The 5-year-ahead measure fell from -9% to -12%.
- House price inflation expectations fell from 0.0% to -0.8%. CPI inflation expectations fell from 5.3% to 5.2% – still too high.
- The proportion of mortgage-paying households who think it’s a good time to spend continues to be lower than renters (-39% vs -26%).
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
