March 31, 2023
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 77.7 in March
Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 9207
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 2.1pts to 77.7 in March.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a ‘good time to buy a major household item’ was unchanged at 22%, however there were fewer people now saying it is a ‘bad time to buy a major household item’, now at 54% (down 3% points). This led to a small improvement in the key retail indicator, with the net result lifting 3 points to -32%, still a very low rating.
- Inflation expectations rose from 5.2% to 5.4% in March. That’s the highest read in nine months. That won’t please the RBNZ, though they put more weight on business expectations.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index eased 2 points in March, remaining very subdued.
Turning to the detail:
- Net perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 4 points to -26% with 24% (up 4% points) saying they are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago compared to 50% (unchanged) who say they are ‘worse off’.
- Helping to drive down Consumer Confidence in March was perceptions about personal finances over the next year with a net 1% now expecting to be better off this time next year, down 6 points from February. This included 35% (down 2% points) who say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to just over a third, 34% (up 5% points) who say they will be ‘worse off’.
- In March a net -32% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, up 3% points from a month ago with 22% (unchanged) of people now saying it is a ‘good time to buy a major household item’ compared to a majority of 54% (down 3% points) who say it is a ‘bad time to buy a major household item’.
- Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 5 points to -46% with only 10% (down 1% point) of New Zealanders saying there will be ‘good times’ economically in New Zealand over the next 12 months while a rising majority of 56% (up 4% points) say there will be ‘bad times’. Perhaps reflecting global financial headlines, the net 5-year-ahead measure fell from -3% to -10% with 19% (down 3% points) saying there will be ‘good times’ for the New Zealand economy over the next five years while more than a quarter, 29% (up 4% points), say there will be ‘bad times’.
- House price inflation expectations lifted from 0% to 0.6%.They are now strongest in Auckland (though only 1.1%, it does appear to mark a trough) and weakest in Wellington (-0.5%).
- One-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose from 5.2% to 5.4%, the highest since June.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
